Independents Say No to Obama in 2012 by 54%-32%


UTICA, New York - One-half of likely voters say they do not plan to vote for President Barack Obama in 2012, compared to 40% who say they expect to support him. The same poll also found that 57% see today's election as a referendum on the President.

The Zogby Interactive poll was conducted from Oct. 29-Nov.1, 2010.  

Among independent voters, 54% say they do not plan to vote for Obama in 2012, 32% will support him and 14% are not sure. The only age group in which a majority (51%) plans to back Obama is the First GlobalTM born since 1979. A plurality of women (48%) also do not plan to vote for Obama.

The perception that today's election is a referendum on the President is widely held across major demographic groups. Exceptions to that opinion are Democrats (30%), liberals (28%) and moderates, who are evenly split on the question. 

Opinion of the President has played a factor in the voting decisions of 51% of voters. In addition to high numbers of Republicans (66%) and conservatives (72%) who say Obama is a factor in their decision, we also found high numbers of independents (60%) and voters over age 65 (63%) who said the same thing.

However, just 23% of voters say their opinion of Obama has changed, and 75% say it has not. Among those who voted for Obama in 2008, 45% have a more positive opinion of Obama and 40% are more negative.

Pollster John Zogby: "Clearly, many voters are holding President Obama accountable for a still struggling economy and not giving him credit for the stimulus bill, healthcare reform or financial regulation. With 50% of voters saying they don't plan to vote for him in 2012, he must re-connect with independent voters and show he is on their side and re-excite key members of his winning coalition: the young, African-Americans and Hispanics. His challenge is to be genuine in trying to work with Republicans while still drawing contrasts with them on issues where Democrats have the advantage."  

The interactive poll consisted of 2,056 likely voters and has a margin of error of +/-2.2%.  A sampling of Zogby International's online panel, which is representative of the adult population of the U.S., was invited to participate.  Slight weights were added to region, party, age, race, religion, gender, and education to more accurately reflect the population.