It is 2012. We have online education, online newspapers, online advertising, online encyclopedias, online spouses and relationships, online job postings, and online jobs.
And now, of course, we have very good online polling. Over four in five (83%) of American households have online access at home -- 92% of likely voters. Compare that with 63% of U.S. households that have landline telephones (matching the telephone penetration in 1963!)
I was with a longtime polling colleague two weeks ago who told the business group that I was also speaking to that a poll was only of the highest quality if it was done using live telephone interviewers and random digit dialing. As he was speaking I was picturing him standing on the shores in Lisbon shouting, "Christopher, turn back, it is too dangerous. You will fall off the face of the earth." Or standing outside the tower in Pisa screaming, "Galileo, come down, the Pope is always right."
Some people simply cannot accept change. Others constantly innovate, stay on top of (or even ahead of) the curve. In a 1997 interview with the then opinion research journal, Public Perspective, I wrote a piece about the future saying that the future of polling is online. I made a strong decision to take my company, Zogby International, down that road in 1999. By the time we were ready to publicly release our first political polling results in 2004, our methodology was solid enough to call the winners (within the margin of sampling error) nationally and even in most states. There were some states we missed, but the strong record of success continued into 2006 and up to early October 2008 (when we stopped because we had too much client work to conduct that we lacked the capacity to continue our own tracking online).
Here is the track record of Zogby Analytics' online polling this year. Looks good to me -- good enough to carry on our tradition of excellence in presidential and senate polling since 1996. Good enough to give us the kind of data that produces the best opinion research and trend forecasting in the business. And certainly good enough to keep our clients happy and coming back to us.
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Nationwide Horserace Two Candidates
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Final Zogby Result 11/3-11/5 Sample 1,005 +/-3.2%
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Actual Election Result 2012
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Obama
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Romney
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Obama
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Romney
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47.3%
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46.8%
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50.4%
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48.1%
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Nationwide Horserace Five Candidates
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Final Zogby Result 11/3-11/5 Sample 1,005 +/-3.2%
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Actual Election Result 2012
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| Obama |
46.6%
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Obama |
50.4%
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| Romney |
45.8%
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Romney |
48.1%
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| Johnson |
2.3%
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Johnson |
1.0%
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| Stein |
1.3%
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Stein |
0.3%
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| Goode |
0.4%
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Goode |
0.1%
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Battleground States
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State
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Final Zogby Result 11/3-11/5
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Actual Election Result 2012
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Obama
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Romney
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Obama
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Romney
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| Virginia |
48.5%
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47.9%
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50.8%
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47.8%
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| Florida |
47.8%
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47.7%
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49.9%
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49.3%
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| Ohio |
50.9%
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43.5%
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50.1%
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48.2%
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State
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Final Zogby Result 11/5-11/6
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Actual Election Result 2012
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| N. Carolina. |
46.3%
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48.5%
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48.4%
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50.6%
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| Iowa |
50.4%
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45.3%
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52.8%
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46.1%
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| Wisconsin |
52.1%
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42.7%
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52.1%
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46.5%
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| State |
Final Zogby Result 11/3-11/5
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State
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Actual Election Result 2012
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Obama
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Romney
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GJ
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Stein
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Goode
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Obama
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Romney
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GJ
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Stein
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Goode
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| VA | 46.8% | 46.5% | 1.8% | 0.3% | 0.9% |
VA
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50.8%
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47.8%
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0.8%
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0.2%
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0.4%
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| FL | 46.9% | 47.2% | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.2% |
FL
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49.9%
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49.3%
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0.5%
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0.1%
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0.1%
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| OH | 50.0% | 42.6% | 1.5% | 1.3% | 0.6% |
OH
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50.1%
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48.2%
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0.9%
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0.3%
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0.1%
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Final Zogby Result 11/5-11/6
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Actual Election Result 2012
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| IA | 49.2% | 44.8% | 1.3% | 0.8% | 0.5% |
IA
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52.1%
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46.5%
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0.8%
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0.2%
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0.2%
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| WI | 52.2% | 41.3% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.2% |
WI
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52.8%
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46.1%
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0.7%
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0.2%
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0.2%
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| NC | 44.7% | 47.6% | 2.3% | 0.1% | 0.4% |
NC
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48.4%
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50.6%
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1.0%
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NA
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NA
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| GJ=Gary Johnson | ||||||||||||
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Florida U.S. Senate Horserace
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Final Zogby Result 11/3-11/5 Sample 876 +/-3.4%
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Actual Election Result 2012
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Bill Nelson
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Connie Mack IV
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Bill Nelson
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Connie Mack IV
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54.4%
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36.4%
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55.1%
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42.3%
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Ohio U.S. Senate Horserace
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Final Zogby Result 11/3-11/5
Sample 832 +/-3.5% |
Actual Election Result 2012
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Sherrod Brown
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Josh Mandel
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Scott Rupert
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Sherrod Brown
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Josh Mandel
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Scott Rupert
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45.0%
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38.1%
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8.2%
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50.3%
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45.1%
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4.6%
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Virginia U.S. Senate Horserace
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Final Zogby Result 11/3-11/5 Sample 800 +/-3.5%
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Actual Election Result 2012
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Tim Kaine
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George Allen
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Tim Kaine
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George Allen
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47.6%
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46.1%
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52.4%
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47.6%
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Pollster John Zogby: "I want to give a special thank you to EMI Online Research Solutions for partnering with Zogby Analytics to provide access to online panels for our Presidential polling. EMI worked with us on planning for sample distribution for different parts of the day, sampling minorities & young voters, and cell only households."