Nationwide Popular Vote All Tied -- 47%-47%;
5-Way Race Is Obama 47%, Romney 46%, Johnson 2%, Stein 1%"
The new three-day rolling average of 1,041 U.S. likely voters, conducted online from Saturday (November 03) through Monday (November 05), has a margin of sampling error of +/-3.1 percentage points.
|
NewsmaxZogby U.S. Nationwide Tracking Poll
Presidential Two Way Horserace |
|||||||||||
|
10/12-
10/13 |
10/19-
10/20 |
10/26-
10/28 |
10/27-
10/29 |
10/28-
10/30 |
10/29-
10/31 |
10/30-
11/01 |
10/31-
11/02 |
11/01-
11/03 |
11/02-
11/04 |
11/03-
11/03 |
|
| Obama |
10/13
|
10/20
|
10/28
|
10/29
|
10/30
|
10/31
|
11/01
|
48.3%
|
46.9%
|
45.8%
|
47.3%
|
| Romney |
47.0%
|
47.4%
|
46.0%
|
45.9%
|
45.1%
|
47.2%
|
48.2%
|
46.3%
|
47.3%
|
47.5%
|
46.8%
|
| Undecided |
44.3%
|
43.8%
|
47.4%
|
47.1%
|
48.3%
|
47.1%
|
46.3%
|
5.4%
|
5.8%
|
6.7%
|
5.8%
|
|
NewsmaxZogby U.S. Nationwide Tracking Poll
Presidential Five Way Horserace |
|||||||||||
|
10/12-
10/13 |
10/19-
10/20 |
10/26-
10/28 |
10/27-
10/29 |
10/28-
10/30 |
10/29-
10/31 |
10/30-
11/01 |
10/31-
11/02 |
11/01-
11/03 |
11/02-
11/04 |
11/03-11/04
|
|
| Obama |
44.4%
|
46.0%
|
44.6%
|
44.9%
|
44.7%
|
46.6%
|
46.7%
|
46.3%
|
45.3%
|
44.9%
|
46.6%
|
| Romney |
43.0%
|
43.2%
|
45.8%
|
45.2%
|
46.6%
|
45.5%
|
45.1%
|
45.1%
|
46.7%
|
46.9%
|
45.8%
|
| Johnson |
3.1%
|
1.9%
|
2.0%
|
2.2%
|
1.7%
|
1.7%
|
2.0%
|
2.1%
|
1.9%
|
1.8%
|
2.3%
|
| Stein |
0.8%
|
1.1%
|
0.9%
|
1.0%
|
0.8%
|
0.5%
|
0.6%
|
0.8%
|
0.7%
|
1.0%
|
1.3%
|
| Goode |
0.8%
|
0.8%
|
0.2%
|
0.8%
|
0.6%
|
0.8%
|
0.3%
|
0.6%
|
0.5%
|
0.6%
|
0.4%
|
| Undecided |
7.8%
|
7.0%
|
6.5%
|
5.9%
|
5.6%
|
4.9%
|
5.3%
|
5.1%
|
5.0%
|
4.7%
|
3.7%
|
Pollster John Zogby: "This tie has a certain destiny to it. Neither candidate has been able to hold to any lead for any length of time and this is more about where the country is than even about the candidates. Each candidate is doing reasonably well with his own base, as I have reported right along. I think that fear of the 'other' has as much to do with solidifying their base as enthusiasm for the candidates. I am including the minor candidates because each in his or her own way is weighing in on the national vote. The popular vote is very important for either candidate to declare legitimacy of victory. What concerns me is whether or not the 'defeated' side will feel empowered to concede."
U.S. Nationwide Likely Voters Poll - 11/03/2012 thru 11/05/2012
Zogby Analytics conducted an online survey of 1,041 likely voters in the U.S. for Newsmax. Based on a confidence interval of 95%, the margin of error for 1,041 is +/- 3.1 percentage points. This means that all other things being equal, the identical survey repeated will have results within the margin of error 95 times out of 100. The NewsmaxZogby Poll of U.S. Likely Voters sampled 37.1% Democrats, 35.4% Republicans and 27.5% independents; 74.3% white, 10% Hispanic, and 12% African American; and 18% age 18-29, 39% age 30-49, 25% age 50-64, and 18% age 65+.
Florida Tied at 48%-48%,
47% Each With Minor Party Candidates Added In
The new three-day rolling average of 876 Florida likely voters, conducted online from Saturday (November 03) through Monday (November 05), has a margin of sampling error of +/-3.5 percentage points.
|
NewsmaxZogby Florida Tracking Poll
Presidential Two Way Horserace |
|||||||||
|
10/14-
10/16 |
10/15-
10/17 |
10/16-
10/18 |
10/26-
10/28 |
10/27-
10/29 |
10/28-
10/30 |
11/01-
11/03 |
11/02-
11/04 |
11/03-11/05
|
|
| Obama |
46.5%
|
46.8%
|
48.2%
|
46.7%
|
48.0%
|
47.7%
|
46.9%
|
50.4%
|
47.8%
|
| Romney |
43.8%
|
42.7%
|
41.8%
|
48.4%
|
47.0%
|
47.4%
|
49.2%
|
45.2%
|
47.7%
|
| Undecided |
9.7%
|
10.5%
|
10.0%
|
5.0%
|
5.0%
|
4.9%
|
4.0%
|
4.3%
|
4.5%
|
|
NewsmaxZogby Florida Tracking Poll
Presidential Five Way Horserace |
|||||||||
|
10/14-
10/16 |
10/15-
10/17 |
10/16-
10/18 |
10/26-
10/28 |
10/27-
10/29 |
10/28-
10/30 |
11/01-
11/03 |
11/02-
11/04 |
11/03-11/05
|
|
| Obama |
48.0%
|
48.7%
|
49.5%
|
46.2%
|
47.4%
|
47.3%
|
46.1%
|
48.9%
|
46.9%
|
| Romney |
43.3%
|
43.1%
|
42.2%
|
47.5%
|
46.7%
|
46.8%
|
48.1%
|
44.7%
|
47.2%
|
| Johnson |
1.9%
|
2.1%
|
1.9%
|
1.6%
|
1.7%
|
2.1%
|
1.0%
|
0.8%
|
0.5%
|
| Stein |
0.7%
|
0.8%
|
0.5%
|
0.8%
|
0.4%
|
0.6%
|
0.8%
|
1.0%
|
0.6%
|
| Goode |
0.6%
|
0.3%
|
0.7%
|
0.2%
|
0.0%
|
0.0%
|
0.3%
|
0.2%
|
0.2%
|
| Undecided |
5.7%
|
5.0%
|
5.1%
|
3.7%
|
3.6%
|
3.2%
|
3.7%
|
4.5%
|
4.6%
|
|
NewsmaxZogby Florida U.S. Senate Tracking
|
|||||||||
|
10/14-
10/16 |
10/15-
10/17 |
10/16-
10/18 |
10/26-
10/28 |
10/27-
10/29 |
10/28-
10/30 |
11/01-
11/03 |
11/02-
11/04 |
11/03-11/05
|
|
| Bill Nelson |
43.9%
|
43.2%
|
45.7%
|
50.3%
|
50.0%
|
48.7%
|
51.5%
|
54.9%
|
54.4%
|
| Connie Mack IV |
35.1%
|
35.2%
|
32.8%
|
40.8%
|
40.9%
|
42.1%
|
38.4%
|
35.1%
|
36.4%
|
| Undecided |
12.2%
|
13.3%
|
12.4%
|
8.9%
|
9.1%
|
9.2%
|
10.2%
|
10.0%
|
9.1%
|
Pollster John Zogby: "Neither candidate enters Election Day with an advantage. And again neither candidate has been able to keep any momentum. This is a state that Romney needs, especially as our polling suggests Obama's strength in Ohio. Again (as in 2000, 2004, and 2008), Florida is just too close to call."
Florida Likely Voters Poll - 11/03/2012 thru 11/05/2012
Zogby Analytics conducted an online survey of 876 likely voters in Florida for Newsmax. Based on a confidence interval of 95%, the margin of error for 876 is +/- 3.5 percentage points. This means that all other things being equal, the identical survey repeated will have results within the margin of error 95 times out of 100. The NewsmaxZogby Poll of Florida Likely Voters sampled 35% Democrats, 37% Republicans and 28% independents; 70% white, 15% Hispanic, and 13% African American; and 15% age 18-29, 34% age 30-49, 28% age 50-64, and 23% age 65+.
Obama Up 7 in Ohio -- 51%-44%;
Hits 50% in Multi-Candidate Race
The new three-day rolling average of 832 Ohio likely voters, conducted online from Saturday (November 03) through Monday (November 05), has a margin of sampling error of +/-3.5 percentage points.
|
NewsmaxZogby Ohio Tracking Poll |
|||||||||
|
10/14-
10/16 |
10/15-
10/17 |
10/16-
10/18 |
10/26-
10/28 |
10/27-
10/29 |
10/28-
10/30 |
11/01-
11/03 |
11/02-
11/04 |
11/03-11/05
|
|
| Obama |
45.6%
|
44.7%
|
44.8%
|
49.5%
|
48.9%
|
50.4%
|
50.2%
|
50.1%
|
50.9%
|
| Romney |
42.2%
|
44.1%
|
43.7%
|
45.9%
|
45.2%
|
44.3%
|
42.3%
|
44.0%
|
43.5%
|
| Undecided |
12.1%
|
11.2%
|
11.4%
|
4.6%
|
5.9%
|
5.3%
|
7.5%
|
5.9%
|
5.7%
|
|
NewsmaxZogby Ohio Tracking Poll
Presidential Five Way Horserace |
|||||||||
|
10/14-
10/16 |
10/15-
10/17 |
10/16-
10/18 |
10/26-
10/28 |
10/27-
10/29 |
10/28-
10/30 |
11/01-
11/03 |
11/02-
11/04 |
11/03-11/05
|
|
| Obama |
47.0%
|
45.9%
|
45.5%
|
48.2%
|
46.8%
|
48.3%
|
49.0%
|
48.9%
|
50.0%
|
| Romney |
42.6%
|
44.3%
|
44.9%
|
44.0%
|
43.6%
|
42.8%
|
41.2%
|
43.0%
|
42.6%
|
| Johnson |
3.0%
|
3.0%
|
3.4%
|
2.6%
|
2.5%
|
2.4%
|
1.8%
|
1.6%
|
1.5%
|
| Stein |
0.8%
|
0.8%
|
1.2%
|
1.3%
|
1.4%
|
1.0%
|
1.0%
|
1.3%
|
1.3%
|
| Goode |
1.1%
|
1.0%
|
1.1%
|
0.7%
|
1.3%
|
1.0%
|
0.5%
|
0.6%
|
0.6%
|
| Undecided |
5.6%
|
5.0%
|
3.8%
|
3.2%
|
4.4%
|
4.5%
|
6.6%
|
4.5%
|
3.9%
|
|
NewsmaxZogby Ohio U.S. Senate Tracking Poll
|
|||||||||
|
10/14-
10/16 |
10/15-
10/17 |
10/16-
10/18 |
10/26-
10/28 |
10/27-
10/29 |
10/28-
10/30 |
11/01-
11/03 |
11/02-
11/04 |
11/03-11/05
|
|
|
Sherrod Brown
|
38.0%
|
37.6%
|
37.3%
|
42.8%
|
45.6%
|
46.2%
|
43.3%
|
43.4%
|
45.0%
|
|
Josh Mandel
|
36.6%
|
37.7%
|
37.1%
|
41.9%
|
38.3%
|
39.9%
|
36.1%
|
36.3%
|
38.1%
|
|
Scott Rupert
|
8.2%
|
8.6%
|
9.8%
|
6.6%
|
7.6%
|
6.7%
|
8.7%
|
9.7%
|
8.2%
|
| Undecided |
17.3%
|
16.0%
|
15.8%
|
8.7%
|
8.5%
|
7.1%
|
11.9%
|
10.5%
|
8.6%
|
Pollster John Zogby: "This is one state that has been trending Obama for a while and he appears to have consolidated his lead. I will not predict because there are many variables here like enthusiasm, turnout, and a last minute event. Ohio just continues to look good for the President -- and for incumbent Senator Sherrod Brown."
Zogby Analytics conducted an online survey of 832 likely voters in Ohio for Newsmax. Based on a confidence interval of 95%, the margin of error for 832 is +/- 3.5 percentage points. This means that all other things being equal, the identical survey repeated will have results within the margin of error 95 times out of 100. The NewsmaxZogby Poll of Ohio Likely Voters sampled 37% Democrats, 37% Republicans and 26% independents; 78% white, 5% Hispanic, and 12% African American; and 17% age 18-29, 38% age 30-49, 28% age 50-64, and 17% age 65+.
Race Tightens In Virginia;
11% of Independents Still Undecided
The new three-day rolling average of 800 Virginia likely voters, conducted online from Saturday (November 03) through Monday (November 05), has a margin of sampling error of +/-3.5 percentage points.
|
NewsmaxZogby Virginia Tracking Poll
Presidential Two Way Horserace |
|||||||||
|
10/14-
10/16 |
10/15-
10/17 |
10/16-
10/18 |
10/26-
10/28 |
10/27-
10/29 |
10/28-
10/30 |
11/01-
11/03 |
11/02-
11/04 |
11/03-11/05
|
|
| Obama |
49.2%
|
48.8%
|
48.0%
|
48.4%
|
45.1%
|
46.7%
|
50.4%
|
51.8%
|
48.5%
|
| Romney |
45.9%
|
46.7%
|
47.5%
|
47.1%
|
48.8%
|
47.8%
|
44.2%
|
44.2%
|
47.9%
|
| Undecided |
4.9%
|
4.5%
|
4.5%
|
4.5%
|
6.1%
|
5.5%
|
5.4%
|
4.0%
|
3.5%
|
|
NewsmaxZogby Virginia Tracking Poll
Presidential Five Way Horserace |
|||||||||
|
10/14-
10/16 |
10/15-
10/17 |
10/16-
10/18 |
10/26-
10/28 |
10/27-
10/29 |
10/28-
10/30 |
11/01-
11/03 |
11/02-
11/04 |
11/03-11/05
|
|
| Obama |
48.7%
|
48.0%
|
47.8%
|
48.1%
|
45.3%
|
46.3%
|
49.9%
|
50.2%
|
46.8%
|
| Romney |
44.8%
|
45.4%
|
45.8%
|
46.0%
|
47.4%
|
47.1%
|
42.1%
|
42.3%
|
46.5%
|
| Johnson |
1.6%
|
1.9%
|
1.9%
|
0.9%
|
1.1%
|
0.8%
|
2.0%
|
2.3%
|
1.8%
|
| Stein |
0.4%
|
0.2%
|
0.3%
|
0.5%
|
0.3%
|
0.4%
|
0.2%
|
0.3%
|
0.3%
|
| Goode |
0.5%
|
0.7%
|
0.6%
|
1.1%
|
1.2%
|
1.0%
|
0.5%
|
0.3%
|
0.9%
|
| Undecided |
4.0%
|
3.8%
|
3.5%
|
3.5%
|
4.7%
|
4.4%
|
5.3%
|
4.7%
|
3.8%
|
|
NewsmaxZogby Virginia U.S. Senate Tracking Poll
|
|||||||||
|
10/14-
10/16 |
10/15-
10/17 |
10/16-
10/18 |
10/26-
10/28 |
10/27-
10/29 |
10/28-
10/30 |
11/01-
11/03 |
11/02-
11/04 |
11/03-11/05
|
|
| Tim Kaine |
46.6%
|
45.6%
|
45.3%
|
46.7%
|
45.3%
|
45.7%
|
48.8%
|
49.8%
|
47.6%
|
| George Allen |
43.6%
|
44.0%
|
45.3%
|
45.1%
|
45.6%
|
45.0%
|
41.4%
|
42.5%
|
46.1%
|
| Undecided |
9.8%
|
10.4%
|
9.5%
|
8.2%
|
9.0%
|
9.4%
|
9.8%
|
7.8%
|
6.2%
|
Pollster John Zogby: "Romney has tightened the race here as Obama has slipped among independents. The real key is how many of those 11% will actually choose a candidate and vote. Certainly not good news for an incumbent who won this state last time to be slipping in the late polls. Obama and Kaine's fortunes are joined at the hip."
Virginia Likely Voters Poll
11/03/2012 thru 11/05/2012
Zogby Analytics conducted an online survey of 800 likely voters in Virginia for Newsmax. Based on a confidence interval of 95%, the margin of error for 800 is +/- 3.5 percentage points. This means that all other things being equal, the identical survey repeated will have results within the margin of error 95 times out of 100. The NewsmaxZogby Poll of Virginia Likely Voters sampled 37% Democrats, 36% Republicans and 27% independents; 71% white, 6% Hispanic, and 19% African American; and 18% age 18-29, 38% age 30-49, 32% age 50-64, and 12% age 65+.
Using trusted interactive partner resources, thousands of adults were invited to participate in this interactive survey. Each invitation is password coded and secure so that one respondent can only access the survey one time.
Using information based on census data, voter registration figures, CIA fact books and exit polls, we use complex weighting techniques to best represent the demographics of the population being surveyed. Weighted variables may include age, race, gender, region, party, education, and religion.
Subsets of the data have a larger margin of error than the whole data set. As a rule we do not rely on the validity of very small subsets of the data especially sets smaller than 50-75 respondents. At that subset we can make estimations based on the data, but in these cases the data is more qualitative than quantitative.
Additional factors can create error, such as question wording and question order.
About Zogby Analytics:
For three decades, the Zogby companies have produced polls with an unparalleled record of accuracy and reliability. Zogby telephone and interactive surveys have generally been the most accurate in U.S. Presidential elections since 1996.
Zogby Analytics is composed entirely of senior level executives from Zogby International. Zogby Analytics, along with renowned pollster John Zogby, have continued in the tradition of conducting telephone and interactive surveys, while keeping an eye on the future by incorporating social media tracking and analysis into our work.
Zogby Analytics conducts a wide variety of surveys internationally and nationally in industries, including banking, IT, medical devices, government agencies, colleges and universities, non-profits, automotive, insurance and NGOs.
Interactive Sample is provided in a joint partnership by EMI - Online Research Solutions with Zogby Analytics. EMI assists companies in making better decisions by giving them access to online and mobile research data in more than 50 countries across consumers as well as businesses and healthcare professionals. http://www.emi-ors.com
Pollster John Zogby: "I want to give a special thank you to EMI Online Research Solutions for partnering with Zogby Analytics to provide access to online panels for our Presidential polling. EMI worked with us on planning for sample distribution for different parts of the day, sampling minorities & young voters, and cell only households."