It's only been one year since the 2020 presidential election! With all the fall-out from the 2020 presidential election, and Covid still raging, the event itself seems so long ago. We know it's way too early to be polling for the 2024 presidential election but we couldn't help ourselves. Is 2024 a repeat and clash of the eighty-something-year-old "grumpy men" or is there new blood on the horizon? Alas, the data points to it's probably going to be Trump and Biden again, unless someone can finally uncover something illegal and Trump is charged with a true crime or Biden is not physically well enough to continue in office.
The data will also tell you Vice President Kamala Harris will not be president in this lifetime. Her approval rating is "not worth a bucket of warm spit." Maybe that's what she meant by telling Joe Biden on the phone after the 2020 presidential election, "we did it, we did it Joe." Both the president and vice president have some of the worst approval ratings in history and both are presiding over the worst economic inflation in thirty years, well mission accomplished! Sounds like an opportunity to hit the road and pat yourself on the back. Biden and Harris should fly into cities with a banner, marching band parade, and top it off with an appearance on The View. That type of distorted reality would top George W. Bush's proclamation of victory in Iraq.
On the Republican side former President Trump is garnering a majority of Republican support (59%) while former Vice President Mike Pence is receiving some attention in second place with 12%. The next level of contenders is Florida Governor Ron DeSantis (7%), anti-Trumper, and former Governor Nikki Haley (5%). At the bottom of the barrel are former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, Texas Gov. Greg Abbot and Sen. Ted Cruz who all received 2%. Current Senator (FL) Marco Rubio finished in last place at 1%.
On the Democratic side the story is President Biden (40%) is not receiving a majority of votes from Democratic primary voters. Former First Lady, Michelle Obama is receiving 20% and that's two to one more support than Vice President Kamala Harris (10%). Someone else and not sure (both 8%) almost received as much support as Kamala Harris, while former Democratic gubernatorial candidate Stacey Abrams (6%), Governor Gavin Newsom (CA, 4%) and Sen. Corey Booker (NJ, 4%) round out the scattered list.
Conclusion
What if Biden and Trump are both declared medically unfit to run for president? That would throw both primary lists into chaos. Who would emerge on the Republican side? The Democrats, who are experiencing an in-house brawl between moderates and progressives, would probably tear each other limb for limb. At that point, you might hear "paging Mrs. Obama," "paging Mrs. Obama, is anyone home, please save our party!"
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Zogby Analytics Poll Methodology
US Likely Voters
10/08/21 - 10/10/21
Zogby Analytics conducted an online survey of 896 likely voters in the US.
Using internal and trusted interactive partner resources, thousands of adults were randomly invited to participate in this interactive survey. Each invitation is password coded and secure so that one respondent can only access the survey one time.
Using information based on census data, voter registration figures, CIA fact books and exit polls, we use complex weighting techniques to best represent the demographics of the population being surveyed. Weighted variables may include age, race, gender, region, party, education, and religion. The party breakdown for this survey is as follows: 38% Democrat, 38% Republican and 24% Independent/unaffiliated.
Based on a confidence interval of 95%, the margin of error for 896 is +/- 3.3 percentage points. This means that all other things being equal, the identical survey repeated will have results within the margin of error 95 times out of 100.
Subsets of the data have a larger margin of error than the whole data set. As a rule we do not rely on the validity of very small subsets of the data especially sets smaller than 50-75 respondents. At that subset we can make estimations based on the data, but in these cases the data is more qualitative than quantitative.
Additional factors can create error, such as question wording and question order.
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About Zogby Analytics:
Zogby Analytics is respected nationally and internationally for its opinion research capabilities. Since 1984, Zogby has empowered clients with powerful information and knowledge critical for making informed strategic decisions.
The firm conducts multi-phased opinion research engagements for banking and financial services institutions, insurance companies, hospitals and medical centers, retailers and developers, religious institutions, cultural organizations, colleges and universities, IT companies and Federal agencies. Zogby's dedication and commitment to excellence and accuracy are reflected in its state-of-the-art opinion research capabilities and objective analysis and consultation.