Biden job approval:
In our post-election survey of 1,010 Independent voters, who voted in the in the November midterm election, President Biden did not perform well with Independent voters. 61% disapproved of his job as president (43% strongly and 18% somewhat disapproved combined). Only 37% of Independent voters approved of President Biden (11% strongly and 26% somewhat approved combined).
Some surveyed Independent sub-groups were less pessimistic about the president’s job approval. Younger voters aged 18-29 were slightly more optimistic about our commander in chief compared to the overall sample of Independents; 45% of younger voters approved of the president’s job, while a majority (53%) disapproved. A majority (61%) of Independent voters over the age of 30 all disapproved of the president, while only 36% approved.
U.S. Direction
Among surveyed Independents, 70% thought the country was off on the wrong track, while 22% thought the country was moving in the right direction. Not even a third of almost every sub-group surveyed thought the country was headed in the right direction, while overwhelming majorities of nearly every surveyed sub-group said the country was off on the wrong track. Even self-identified liberals (44% right direction/46% wrong track), among the nationwide sample of Independents, thought the country was off on the wrong track. Also, those surveyed Independents who thought their personal finances were better off than four years ago (53% right direction/38%wrong track) were the only group where a majority thought the country was headed in the right direction.
U.S. Economic Direction
Almost three quarters (72%) of Independent voters thought the economic direction of the U.S. was headed in the wrong direction, as opposed to the right track (19%). Strong majorities of almost every sub-group thought the economic direction of the country was off on the wrong track. Surveyed Independents who thought their personal finances were better off than four years ago (50% right direction/40% wrong track) were the only surveyed sub-group to think the economic direction of the country was on the right track.
Top Midterm Election issue
According to Independent voters surveyed after the midterm election, inflation (24%) was the top issue that was the deciding factor in which candidates they voted for, followed closely by economy/jobs (19%), threats to the democratic process (12%), and reproductive rights (11%). No other issue received double digit support. When we examined Independent voters by sub-groups such as age and ideology, there were differences in what issues were perceived as the most important in deciding which candidates they voted for.
Younger voters aged 18-29 were much more likely to see reproductive rights (17%) as the most important issue that decided which candidates, they voted for compared with the oldest voters surveyed aged 65+ (11%), while the oldest voters surveyed aged 50-64 and 65+ were more likely to view inflation (both 26%) and threats to the democratic process (13% and 20%, respectively) as more important in who they decided to vote for. As for ideology, liberals were much more likely to say reproductive rights (21%) was the biggest factor in which candidates they voted for as opposed to moderates (11%) and conservatives (4%), who both agreed inflation (23% and 30%, respectively) was the most important issue in deciding which candidates to vote for during November’s midterm election.
Top three issues
When we asked Independent voters what their top three issues facing the country were, inflation (57%) was still at the top, but by a large margin, followed by economy/jobs (3%), gas prices (23%), threats to the democratic process (23%), immigration reform (21%), and reproductive rights (20%). Gun violence (19%), climate change (17%) and political polarization (15%) were also seen as top issues facing the U.S. right now.
2024 Horse races
Biden vs. Trump
In a rematch of the 2020 presidential election, we asked Independent voters who they would vote for between President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump. Both candidates were tied at 38%, while 17% wanted someone else and 7% were not sure.
Regionally, Trump did better in the South (Trump led 42% to 34%) and Central/Great Lakes regions (Trump led 39% to 35%), while Biden held a large led in the East region (Biden led 45% to 32%). The hypothetical race tightened up in the West region (Biden led 41% to 38%). Biden and Trump were in tight races among all age groups, but Trump did hold a small led over Biden among younger Independent voters aged 18-29 (Trump led 40% to 35%). Men (Trump led 41% to 37%) and non-college educated Independents (Trump led 41% to 33%) preferred Trump, while women (Biden 38% to 35%) and college educated Independents (Biden led 45% to 35%) preferred the president.
Not surprising, President Biden held large leads over Trump in large (Biden led 47% to 35%) and medium sized (Biden 40% to 33%) urban areas. Most importantly, Biden was more popular among suburban Independent voters (Biden led 40% to 36%), but Trump did perform well with small city (Trump led 42% to 35%) and rural (Trump led 46% to 27%) Independents.
Among white Independent voters Trump held a slight advantage 40% to 38%, but among Hispanic Independents Trump led 45% to 32%, while Biden led among African American Independents (Biden led 46% to 25%). In both cases, each sub-group had samples of 90 Independent voters, which carried a larger margin of error than the overall sample.
Biden vs. DeSantis
In another hypothetical 2024 presidential match-up, Florida Governor Ron DeSantis handily beats President Biden (DeSantis led 43% to 34%) among a large nationwide sample of Independent voters. While this doesn’t mean the end of Biden, it is a sure indicator that the Florida governor is the real deal.
Regionally, DeSantis did very well; he led Biden outside the margin of error in the South (DeSantis led 46% to 31%), Central/Great Lakes (DeSantis led 42% to 31%) and West regions (DeSantis led 43% to 39%) and was within string distance in the East region (Biden led 41% to 38%). When it came to the age of Independents, Governor DeSantis led among all age groups, especially among those aged 50+ (DeSantis led 47% to 35%).
DeSantis also scored well with men (DeSantis led 48% to 34%), women (DeSantis led 37% to 34%), college educated Independents (DeSantis led 44% to 40%), non-college educated Independents (DeSantis led 42% to 30%), urban Independents in medium (DeSantis led 38% to 35%) and small sized cities (DeSantis led 46% to 31%), rural areas (DeSantis led 49% to 24%) and most importantly, in the suburbs (DeSantis led 44% to 36%).
The president did perform well among urban Independent voters in large cities (Biden led 45% to 34%).
Takeaways
It’s clear voters, especially Independent voters, are not crazy about the President. Inflation is the most pressing issues for voters, post-midterm election, but other issues like reproductive rights and threats to democracy might have been enough to save Democrats and help them pull off a stunning victory in the midterm election. While Biden relishes in the victory and has some legislative achievements to date, the economy is not looking good.
Voters might have found some distractions to ignore the economic issues that currently plague us, but those distractions like January 6, abortion, and climate change might not be enough to carry Biden to victory in 2024. As of now, Trump is looking less like a shoo-in, while DeSantis continues to edge his way up the party ladder. We’ll see if DeSantis is ready for primetime come primary season, but right now he’s looking like a bonified contender!
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Zogby Analytics Poll Methodology
Nov. 8th Voters Voters - Independents
11/9/22 - 11/11/22
Zogby Analytics conducted an online survey of 1010 Nov. 8th voters in the US. who are Independents.
Using internal and trusted interactive partner resources, thousands of adults were randomly invited to participate in this interactive survey. Each invitation is password coded and secure so that one respondent can only access the survey one time.
Using information based on census data, voter registration figures, CIA fact books and exit polls, we use complex weighting techniques to best represent the demographics of the population being surveyed. Weighted variables may include age, race, gender, region, party, education, and religion. The party breakdown for this survey is as follows: 38% Democrat, 38% Republican and 24% Independent/unaffiliated.
Based on a confidence interval of 95%, the margin of error for 1010 is +/- 3.1 percentage points. This means that all other things being equal, the identical survey repeated will have results within the margin of error 95 times out of 100.
Subsets of the data have a larger margin of error than the whole data set. As a rule we do not rely on the validity of very small subsets of the data especially sets smaller than 50-75 respondents. At that subset we can make estimations based on the data, but in these cases the data is more qualitative than quantitative.
Additional factors can create error, such as question wording and question order.
About Zogby Analytics:
Zogby Analytics is respected nationally and internationally for its opinion research capabilities. Since 1984, Zogby has empowered clients with powerful information and knowledge critical for making informed strategic decisions.
The firm conducts multi-phased opinion research engagements for banking and financial services institutions, insurance companies, hospitals and medical centers, retailers and developers, religious institutions, cultural organizations, colleges and universities, IT companies and Federal agencies. Zogby's dedication and commitment to excellence and accuracy are reflected in its state-of-the-art opinion research capabilities and objective analysis and consultation.