Economic Index November 2022
The Zogby Economic Index combines responses to 10 questions on Americans’ views about their leaders (President, Congress), the direction of their country, and their personal situations (job security, personal financial situation). Each quarter we survey American voters and calculate the value of the index relative to January 2021 results, which established the benchmark score of 100. Scores above 100 indicate that the country’s mood has improved relative to January 2021 while scores below 100 show its mood getting worse.
Based on our national survey of 2,004 voters who voted in the November 2022 mid-term election, conducted right after the election between November 9 and November 11, the index currently stands at 87, a two-point increase since August, and the first upward movement since the beginning of the Biden administration. Thirty-nine percent of voters rated President Biden’s performance as ‘excellent’ or ‘good’ (a one-point increase since August) and 26% (a one-point drop) gave the same rating to Congress. President Biden continues to struggle with rural voters (66% rate his performance as ‘poor’, a five-point increase since August) and older voters (54% and 57% in the 50-64 and 65+ age groups, respectively). He did, however, improve his numbers with young voters and Hispanics – 49% (an eight-point increase since August) of survey respondents in the 18-29 age group and 49% (a five-point increase) of Hispanics rate his performance as ‘excellent’ or ‘good’. However, the President’s numbers are still nowhere close to his numbers in January 2021 (73% and 78%, respectively).
Congress’ already bad August numbers among rural and older voters got even worse and returned to the levels observed in May – 11% (a four-point drop since August) of survey respondents in the 65+ age group and 11% (a four-point drop) of voters in rural areas rated its performance as ‘excellent’ or ‘good’.
Sixty-one percent (a four-point drop since August) of respondents think the country is on the wrong track, while 32% believe it is heading in the right direction (a five-point increase). In addition, 77% of survey respondents (a seven-point increase since August) are either ‘very proud’ and ‘fairly proud’ of the United States. Democrats (64%, 12% among Republicans), large city residents (54%, 17% among rural voters), top earners (54% among those in the $150K+ income group) and respondents in the 30-49 age group (48%, lowest in the 50-64 income group at 23%) are most likely to feel that the country is heading in the right direction.
The perception of U.S. foreign policy (34% rate it as ‘excellent’ or ‘good) has also improved four percentage points since August, however, the perception of U.S. economic policy (27%) has stayed virtually unchanged. The shift in support for foreign policy is most notable among Democrats where now 60% rate it as ‘excellent’ or ‘good’, compared to 49% in August and 58% in May. U.S. economic policy is best perceived among Democrats (53% rate it as ‘excellent’ or ‘good’, 12% and 15% among Republicans and Independents, respectively), voters in the 30-49 age group (43%, lowest in the 50-64 age group at 15%) and among large city residents (48%, 13% among rural voters).
The number of voters who see their own personal financial situation as ‘excellent’ or ‘good’ has remained steady at 39%. However, the number of voters who feel very or fairly secure in their jobs and who are fairly or very confident that their children will have a better life than themselves have improved considerably to 77% (a 12-point increase since August) and 55% (a 10-point increase), respectively. Similar to the results in May and August, college educated voters (52%, a single point drop since August; 27% among non-college educated), large city residents (54%, a five-percent increase; 25% among rural voters) and Democrats (55%, a four-point increase; 27% and 29% among Independents and Republicans, respectively) are most likely to rate their personal financial situation as either ‘excellent’ or ‘good’).
Voters aged 30-49 (50% rate their personal financial situation as ‘excellent’ or ‘good’) feel the best off while those in the 50-64 age group (29%) feel the worst off. Younger voters continue to be more likely than older ones to think that their children will have a better life than themselves. This is especially true of those in the 30-49 age group, where the numbers completely recovered from the double-digit drop observed in August and are now back to 64% being at least fairly confident that their children will have a better life than themselves.
The number of Americans who feel fairly or very safe from threats from abroad (64%) has not changed significantly since August. Similar to previous surveys, Democrats (77% feel at least fairly safe from threats from abroad), college educated voters (70%), males (68%) and large city residents (73%) tend to feel safer than Republicans (50%), non-college educated (57%), female voters (57%) and rural voters (53%).
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Zogby Analytics Poll Methodology
Nov. 8th Voters Voters - Independents
11/9/22 - 11/11/22
Zogby Analytics conducted an online survey of 1,010 Nov. 8th voters in the US. who are Independents.
Using internal and trusted interactive partner resources, thousands of adults were randomly invited to participate in this interactive survey. Each invitation is password coded and secure so that one respondent can only access the survey one time.
Using information based on census data, voter registration figures, CIA fact books and exit polls, we use complex weighting techniques to best represent the demographics of the population being surveyed. Weighted variables may include age, race, gender, region, party, education, and religion. The party breakdown for this survey is as follows: 38% Democrat, 38% Republican and 24% Independent/unaffiliated.
Based on a confidence interval of 95%, the margin of error for 1010 is +/- 3.1 percentage points. This means that all other things being equal, the identical survey repeated will have results within the margin of error 95 times out of 100.
Subsets of the data have a larger margin of error than the whole data set. As a rule we do not rely on the validity of very small subsets of the data especially sets smaller than 50-75 respondents. At that subset we can make estimations based on the data, but in these cases the data is more qualitative than quantitative.
Additional factors can create error, such as question wording and question order.
About Zogby Analytics:
Zogby Analytics is respected nationally and internationally for its opinion research capabilities. Since 1984, Zogby has empowered clients with powerful information and knowledge critical for making informed strategic decisions.
The firm conducts multi-phased opinion research engagements for banking and financial services institutions, insurance companies, hospitals and medical centers, retailers and developers, religious institutions, cultural organizations, colleges and universities, IT companies and Federal agencies. Zogby's dedication and commitment to excellence and accuracy are reflected in its state-of-the-art opinion research capabilities and objective analysis and consultation.