NewsmaxZogby U.S. Nationwide Tracking Poll
Race for White House Stays Close --
Romney Up 2, 48%-46%

The new three-day rolling average of 1,013 U.S. likely voters, conducted online from Friday (November 02) through Sunday (November 04), has a margin of sampling error of +/-3.1 percentage points.

NewsmaxZogby U.S. Nationwide Tracking Poll
Presidential Two Way Horserace
 
10/12-
10/13
10/19-
10/20
10/26-
10/28
10/27-
10/29
10/28-
10/30
10/29-
10/31
10/30-
11/01
10/31-
11/02
11/01-
11/03
11/02-11/04
Obama
10/13
10/20
10/28
10/29
10/30
10/31
11/01
48.3%
46.9%
45.8%
Romney
47.0%
47.4%
46.0%
45.9%
45.1%
47.2%
48.2%
46.3%
47.3%
47.5%
Undecided
44.3%
43.8%
47.4%
47.1%
48.3%
47.1%
46.3%
5.4%
5.8%
6.7%
 
NewsmaxZogby U.S. Nationwide Tracking Poll
Presidential Five Way Horserace
 
10/12-
10/13
10/19-
10/20
10/26-
10/28
10/27-
10/29
10/28-
10/30
10/29-
10/31
10/30-
11/01
10/31-
11/02
11/01-
11/03
11/02-11/04
Obama
44.4%
46.0%
44.6%
44.9%
44.7%
46.6%
46.7%
46.3%
45.3%
44.9%
Romney
43.0%
43.2%
45.8%
45.2%
46.6%
45.5%
45.1%
45.1%
46.7%
46.9%
Johnson
3.1%
1.9%
2.0%
2.2%
1.7%
1.7%
2.0%
2.1%
1.9%
1.8%
Stein
0.8%
1.1%
0.9%
1.0%
0.8%
0.5%
0.6%
0.8%
0.7%
1.0%
Goode
0.8%
0.8%
0.2%
0.8%
0.6%
0.8%
0.3%
0.6%
0.5%
0.6%
Undecided
7.8%
7.0%
6.5%
5.9%
5.6%
4.9%
5.3%
5.1%
5.0%
4.7%

Pollster John Zogby: "Are we looking at a possible split decision on Tuesday? Either candidate can win the close popular vote and lose the Electoral College -- even by a landslide. This is so much like 2000 all over again. Neither candidate seems to be able to keep momentum for more than a few days. Slowly the popular vote is swinging back to Romney. Will he sustain it for the next few days or will it swing back again? If Romney holds on and even grows his lead over the next few days, it can influence turnout for him in several key states. Obama is holding on to his base support. Romney is still not performing where he needs to among white voters and evangelicals. But he is now leading by double digits among NASCAR fans, growing his lead to 16 points among investors, and leading by 7 with men. The biggest difference in today's polling is Romney's substantial lead among independents, 48%-34%, but today's three-day tracking still has 18% of independents as undecided."


NewsmaxZogby Tracking Poll Methodology
U.S. Nationwide Likely Voters Poll
11/02/2012 thru 11/04/2012

Zogby Analytics conducted an online survey of 1,013 likely voters in the U.S. for Newsmax.

Based on a confidence interval of 95%, the margin of error for 1,013 is +/- 3.1 percentage points. This means that all other things being equal, the identical survey repeated will have results within the margin of error 95 times out of 100.



NewsmaxZogby Florida Tracking Poll
Obama Pulls Into Lead in Florida, 50%-45;
Nelson Up by 20 Points

 

The new three-day rolling average of 826 Florida likely voters, conducted online from Friday (November 02) through Sunday (November 04), has a margin of sampling error of +/-3.5 percentage points.
NewsmaxZogby Florida Tracking Poll
Presidential Two Way Horserace
 
10/14-
10/16
10/15-
10/17
10/16-
10/18
10/26-
10/28
10/27-
10/29
10/28-
10/30
11/01-
11/03
11/02-11/04
Obama
46.5%
46.8%
48.2%
46.7%
48.0%
47.7%
46.9%
50.4%
Romney
43.8%
42.7%
41.8%
48.4%
47.0%
47.4%
49.2%
45.2%
Undecided
9.7%
10.5%
10.0%
5.0%
5.0%
4.9%
4.0%
4.3%

NewsmaxZogby Florida Tracking Poll
Presidential Five Way Horserace

10/14-
10/16
10/15-
10/17
10/16-
10/18
10/26-
10/28
10/27-
10/29
10/28-
10/30
11/01-
11/03
11/02-11/04
Obama
48.0%
48.7%
49.5%
46.2%
47.4%
47.3%
46.1%
48.9%
Romney
43.3%
43.1%
42.2%
47.5%
46.7%
46.8%
48.1%
44.7%
Johnson
1.9%
2.1%
1.9%
1.6%
1.7%
2.1%
1.0%
0.8%
Stein
0.7%
0.8%
0.5%
0.8%
0.4%
0.6%
0.8%
1.0%
Goode
0.6%
0.3%
0.7%
0.2%
0.0%
0.0%
0.3%
0.2%
Undecided
5.7%
5.0%
5.1%
3.7%
3.6%
3.2%
3.7%
4.5%

NewsmaxZogby Florida U.S. Senate Tracking

10/14-
10/16
10/15-
10/17
10/16-
10/18
10/26-
10/28
10/27-
10/29
10/28-
10/30
11/01-
11/03
11/02-11/04
Bill Nelson
43.9%
43.2%
45.7%
50.3%
50.0%
48.7%
51.5%
54.9%
Connie Mack IV
35.1%
35.2%
32.8%
40.8%
40.9%
42.1%
38.4%
35.1%
Undecided
12.2%
13.3%
12.4%
8.9%
9.1%
9.2%
10.2%
10.0%

Pollster John Zogby: "This has been another see-saw battle but today's three-day rolling average shows Obama hitting 50% in the Sunshine State. This is on the strength of his solid base among young, Hispanic, African American, and Creative Class voters. He now leads 49%-42% among independents and leads among both men and women. Obama's 21 point margin in South Florida is more like a Democrat should expect for victory. But caution: this is as of Sunday night and there are still undecided voters."


NewsmaxZogby Tracking Poll Methodology
Florida Likely Voters Poll
11/01/2012 thru 11/03/2012

Zogby Analytics conducted an online survey of 826 likely voters in Florida for Newsmax.

Based on a confidence interval of 95%, the margin of error for 826 is +/- 3.5 percentage points. This means that all other things being equal, the identical survey repeated will have results within the margin of error 95 times out of 100.



NewsmaxZogby Ohio Tracking Poll
Obama Holds Lead in Ohio -- 50%-44%;
Brown Up By 7 in Senate Race

The new three-day rolling average of 831 Ohio likely voters, conducted online from Friday (November 02) through Sunday (November 04), has a margin of sampling error of +/-3.5 percentage points.
NewsmaxZogby Ohio Tracking Poll
Presidential Two Way Horserace
 
10/14-
10/16
10/15-
10/17
10/16-
10/18
10/26-
10/28
10/27-
10/29
10/28-
10/30
11/01-
11/03
11/02-11/04
Obama
45.6%
44.7%
44.8%
49.5%
48.9%
50.4%
50.2%
50.1%
Romney
42.2%
44.1%
43.7%
45.9%
45.2%
44.3%
42.3%
44.0%
Undecided
12.1%
11.2%
11.4%
4.6%
5.9%
5.3%
7.5%
5.9%

NewsmaxZogby Ohio Tracking Poll
Presidential Five Way Horserace

10/14-
10/16
10/15-
10/17
10/16-
10/18
10/26-
10/28
10/27-
10/29
10/28-
10/30
11/01-
11/03
11/02-11/04
Obama
47.0%
45.9%
45.5%
48.2%
46.8%
48.3%
49.0%
48.9%
Romney
42.6%
44.3%
44.9%
44.0%
43.6%
42.8%
41.2%
43.0%
Johnson
3.0%
3.0%
3.4%
2.6%
2.5%
2.4%
1.8%
1.6%
Stein
0.8%
0.8%
1.2%
1.3%
1.4%
1.0%
1.0%
1.3%
Goode
1.1%
1.0%
1.1%
0.7%
1.3%
1.0%
0.5%
0.6%
Undecided
5.6%
5.0%
3.8%
3.2%
4.4%
4.5%
6.6%
4.5%

NewsmaxZogby Ohio U.S. Senate Tracking Poll

10/14-
10/16
10/15-
10/17
10/16-
10/18
10/26-
10/28
10/27-
10/29
10/28-
10/30
11/01-
11/03
11/02-11/04
Sherrod Brown
38.0%
37.6%
37.3%
42.8%
45.6%
46.2%
43.3%
43.4%
Josh Mandel
36.6%
37.7%
37.1%
41.9%
38.3%
39.9%
36.1%
36.3%
Scott Rupert
8.2%
8.6%
9.8%
6.6%
7.6%
6.7%
8.7%
9.7%
Undecided
17.3%
16.0%
15.8%
8.7%
8.5%
7.1%
11.9%
10.5%

Pollster John Zogby: "Yesterday Obama led by 8 points, now it is 6. But there is really no major shift or specific trend accounting for this change. Ohio, for now, is looking pretty good for Obama. We will continue polling but Romney is running out of time in this state that has been so necessary for any Republican presidential candidate to win."



NewsmaxZogby Tracking Poll Methodology
Ohio Likely Voters Poll
11/02/2012 thru 11/04/2012

Zogby Analytics conducted an online survey of 831 likely voters in Ohio for Newsmax.

Based on a confidence interval of 95%, the margin of error for 831 is +/- 3.5 percentage points. This means that all other things being equal, the identical survey repeated will have results within the margin of error 95 times out of 100.



NewsmaxZogby Virginia Tracking Poll
Obama Up 8 Points in Virginia -- 50%-42%;
Kain Leads by 7 Over Allen.

The new three-day rolling average of 814 Virginia likely voters, conducted online from Friday (November 02) through Sunday (November 04), has a margin of sampling error of +/-3.5 percentage points.
NewsmaxZogby Virginia Tracking Poll
Presidential Two Way Horserace
 
10/14-
10/16
10/15-
10/17
10/16-
10/18
10/26-
10/28
10/27-
10/29
10/28-
10/30
11/01-
11/03
11/02-11/04
Obama
49.2%
48.8%
48.0%
48.4%
45.1%
46.7%
50.4%
51.8%
Romney
45.9%
46.7%
47.5%
47.1%
48.8%
47.8%
44.2%
44.2%
Undecided
4.9%
4.5%
4.5%
4.5%
6.1%
5.5%
5.4%
4.0%
 
NewsmaxZogby Virginia Tracking Poll
Presidential Five Way Horserace
 
10/14-
10/16
10/15-
10/17
10/16-
10/18
10/26-
10/28
10/27-
10/29
10/28-
10/30
11/01-
11/03
11/02-11/04
Obama
48.7%
48.0%
47.8%
48.1%
45.3%
46.3%
49.9%
50.2%
Romney
44.8%
45.4%
45.8%
46.0%
47.4%
47.1%
42.1%
42.3%
Johnson
1.6%
1.9%
1.9%
0.9%
1.1%
0.8%
2.0%
2.3%
Stein
0.4%
0.2%
0.3%
0.5%
0.3%
0.4%
0.2%
0.3%
Goode
0.5%
0.7%
0.6%
1.1%
1.2%
1.0%
0.5%
0.3%
Undecided
4.0%
3.8%
3.5%
3.5%
4.7%
4.4%
5.3%
4.7%
 
NewsmaxZogby Virginia U.S. Senate Tracking Poll
 
10/14-
10/16
10/15-
10/17
10/16-
10/18
10/26-
10/28
10/27-
10/29
10/28-
10/30
11/01-
11/03
11/02-11/04
Tim Kaine
46.6%
45.6%
45.3%
46.7%
45.3%
45.7%
48.8%
49.8%
George Allen
43.6%
44.0%
45.3%
45.1%
45.6%
45.0%
41.4%
42.5%
Undecided
9.8%
10.4%
9.5%
8.2%
9.0%
9.4%
9.8%
7.8%


Pollster John Zogby: "Okay, I and my whole team have triple checked the numbers. Zogby national polling has never missed a presidential election yet by the polling numbers and my record in Virginia, Ohio, and Florida has been very accurate. With that said: Obama appears to have a commanding lead in Virginia. His coalition is healthy and he is outperforming among whites and evangelicals. He and former Governor Tim Kaine seem to be energizing each other. We will still be polling Monday and Tuesday. If these numbers are right in the three key battleground states, could this be why Romney and Ryan are campaigning in Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Minnesota, and Colorado in the closing days?"


NewsmaxZogby Tracking Poll Methodology
Virginia Likely Voters Poll
11/02/2012 thru 11/04/2012

Zogby Analytics conducted an online survey of 814 likely voters in Virginia for Newsmax.

Based on a confidence interval of 95%, the margin of error for 814 is +/- 3.5 percentage points. This means that all other things being equal, the identical survey repeated will have results within the margin of error 95 times out of 100.


NewsmaxZogby Tracking Poll Methodology
For All Likely Voters Poll

Using trusted interactive partner resources, thousands of adults were invited to participate in this interactive survey. Each invitation is password coded and secure so that one respondent can only access the survey one time.

Using information based on census data, voter registration figures, CIA fact books and exit polls, we use complex weighting techniques to best represent the demographics of the population being surveyed. Weighted variables may include age, race, gender, region, party, education, and religion.

Subsets of the data have a larger margin of error than the whole data set. As a rule we do not rely on the validity of very small subsets of the data especially sets smaller than 50-75 respondents. At that subset we can make estimations based on the data, but in these cases the data is more qualitative than quantitative.

Additional factors can create error, such as question wording and question order.

About Zogby Analytics:

For three decades, the Zogby companies have produced polls with an unparalleled record of accuracy and reliability. Zogby telephone and interactive surveys have generally been the most accurate in U.S. Presidential elections since 1996.

Zogby Analytics is composed entirely of senior level executives from Zogby International. Zogby Analytics, along with renowned pollster John Zogby, have continued in the tradition of conducting telephone and interactive surveys, while keeping an eye on the future by incorporating social media tracking and analysis into our work.

Zogby Analytics conducts a wide variety of surveys internationally and nationally in industries, including banking, IT, medical devices, government agencies, colleges and universities, non-profits, automotive, insurance and NGOs.

Interactive Sample is provided in a joint partnership by EMI - Online Research Solutions with Zogby Analytics. EMI assists companies in making better decisions by giving them access to online and mobile research data in more than 50 countries across consumers as well as businesses and healthcare professionals. http://www.emi-ors.com