I do not make predictions and, to quote the Governor of Texas, "I'm not a bettin' man." A real pollster has the humility to admit that real balls are made of human flesh - not of crystal, brass, or even silver. But I do look at trends and try to see the direction of things. The presidential race is indeed too close to call and likely to stay that way-at least in the nationwide popular vote. And the battleground states are mainly too close to call, as well. So what if the nationwide vote stays a 1 pointer and a candidate wins all (or most) of the battleground states by slim margins? I suggested in one of my posts last week that a close election could actually end up in the courts in several states. Not a pretty picture at all - especially with the looming fiscal cliff.

But what if one of the candidates wins by a point or two in all the states too close to call right now? Let's review the situation.

The website RealClearPolitics continues to show that President Obama has a lock on 201 electoral votes to former Governor Mitt Romney's 191. The President has been holding leads in most polls (give or take an outlier in each) in Michigan (16), Ohio (18), Pennsylvania (20), Wisconsin (10), and Nevada (6). Noting the fact that anything can happen in the last 48 hours, let's add those 70 votes to Obama's total giving him 271.

Now just to build on a possible scenario:

  • Colorado (9) - the last 3 or 4 polls have Obama leading and the Denver Post has endorsed him;
  • Florida (29) - my poll and that of NBC have Obama leading
  • Iowa (6) - 3 of last 4 polls have Obama leading
  • New Hampshire (4) - the last 4 polls have Obama leading
  • Virginia (13) - the two most recent polls have Obama with a slim margin

Another 68 electoral votes raising the President's totals to 339. If we add North Carolina's 15 votes to Governor Romney, where he leads, we have 206 for him.

Let me gently remind you: some or all of these can tip the other way. But just what if President Obama wins re-election with a tiny margin in the popular vote but carries the Electoral College by 136 (or 139) votes?

Will there really be court cases challenging all those states?

Will the GOP concede and compromise in the critical pre-fiscal cliff lame duck period?

Will a re-elected President Obama get his mojo working and boldly lead - both his party and his nation?

Will the leaders of his own party be gracious in victory - "with malice toward none and justice toward all"?

Will the leaders of talk radio, cable news, and the nuttier blogs declare a period of healing and shut the hell up for 100 days?

And what if this scenario is Romney's victory? "Ditto", in a manner of speaking.

Not a prediction at all - but something to think about?