NewsmaxZogby U.S. Nationwide Tracking Poll
Tied Again and Again --
Obama 47%-Romney 47%



The new three-day rolling average of 1,011 U.S. likely voters, conducted online from Thursday (November 01) through Saturday (November 03), has a margin of sampling error of +/-3.1 percentage points.

NewsmaxZogby U.S. Nationwide Tracking Poll
Presidential Two Way Horserace
 
10/12-
10/13
10/19-
10/20
10/26-
10/28
10/27-
10/29
10/28-
10/30
10/29-
10/31
10/30-
11/01
10/31-
11/02
11/01-11/03
Obama
10/13
10/20
10/28
10/29
10/30
10/31
11/01
48.3%
46.9%
Romney
47.0%
47.4%
46.0%
45.9%
45.1%
47.2%
48.2%
46.3%
47.3%
Undecided
44.3%
43.8%
47.4%
47.1%
48.3%
47.1%
46.3%
5.4%
5.8%
 
NewsmaxZogby U.S. Nationwide Tracking Poll
Presidential Five Way Horserace
 
10/12-
10/13
10/19-
10/20
10/26-
10/28
10/27-
10/29
10/28-
10/30
10/29-
10/31
10/30-
11/01
10/31-
11/02
11/01-11/03
Obama
44.4%
46.0%
44.6%
44.9%
44.7%
46.6%
46.7%
46.3%
45.3%
Romney
43.0%
43.2%
45.8%
45.2%
46.6%
45.5%
45.1%
45.1%
46.7%
Johnson
3.1%
1.9%
2.0%
2.2%
1.7%
1.7%
2.0%
2.1%
1.9%
Stein
0.8%
1.1%
0.9%
1.0%
0.8%
0.5%
0.6%
0.8%
0.7%
Goode
0.8%
0.8%
0.2%
0.8%
0.6%
0.8%
0.3%
0.6%
0.5%
Undecided
7.8%
7.0%
6.5%
5.9%
5.6%
4.9%
5.3%
5.1%
5.0%



Pollster John Zogby: "To readers this may seem like watching paint dry. It is. While the lead may change here and there, the polling is clear: The American people are tied. The real question will be on November 7, the day after the counting and vote -- will we agree to disagree? Will one side give? Will one side concede that the election is the will of the public? Democracy relies on that. Meanwhile, Romney leads among those who have already voted and the two candidates are very close among voters who say they will "definitely" and are "very likely" to vote. Romney now leads among independents (49% Romney, 37% Obama) but 13% are still undecided -- and independents, as always, remain volatile. Or are they "decided" about not voting for either? Romney leads 58%-37% among whites, while Obama is solid among Hispanics (69%-23%) and African Americans (91%-7%). Obama has grown his lead among the Creative Class by 19 points (57%-38%), a lead that is growing daily. But Romney has made gains among NASCAR fans and Weekly Wal-Mart Shoppers -- both vital to his success. After a week of "presidential leadership" following Sandy, Obama is still not locking this up."





NewsmaxZogby Tracking Poll Methodology
U.S. Nationwide Likely Voters Poll
11/01/2012 thru 11/03/2012



Zogby Analytics conducted an online survey of 1,011 likely voters in the U.S. for Newsmax.

Based on a confidence interval of 95%, the margin of error for 1,011 is +/- 3.1 percentage points. This means that all other things being equal, the identical survey repeated will have results within the margin of error 95 times out of 100.

The NewsmaxZogby Poll of U.S. Likely Voters sampled 36.8% Democrats, 34.6% Republicans and 28.6% independents; 74.3% white, 10% Hispanic, and 12% African American; and 18% age 18-29, 39% age 30-49, 25% age 50-64, and 18% age 65+.


 



NewsmaxZogby Florida Tracking Poll
Oh That Florida: Romney Now With 49% to Obama's 47%;
Nelson Leads Senate Race by 14 Points



The new three-day rolling average of 823 Florida likely voters, conducted online from Thursday (November 01) through Saturday (November 03), has a margin of sampling error of +/-3.5 percentage points.

NewsmaxZogby Florida Tracking Poll
Presidential Two Way Horserace
 
10/14-
10/16
10/15-
10/17
10/16-
10/18
10/26-
10/28
10/27-
10/29
10/28-
10/30
11/01-11/03
Obama
46.5%
46.8%
48.2%
46.7%
48.0%
47.7%
46.9%
Romney
43.8%
42.7%
41.8%
48.4%
47.0%
47.4%
49.2%
Undecided
9.7%
10.5%
10.0%
5.0%
5.0%
4.9%
4.0%
 
NewsmaxZogby Florida Tracking Poll
Presidential Five Way Horserace
 
10/14-
10/16
10/15-
10/17
10/16-
10/18
10/26-
10/28
10/27-
10/29
10/28-
10/30
11/01-11/03
Obama
48.0%
48.7%
49.5%
46.2%
47.4%
47.3%
46.1%
Romney
43.3%
43.1%
42.2%
47.5%
46.7%
46.8%
48.1%
Johnson
1.9%
2.1%
1.9%
1.6%
1.7%
2.1%
1.0%
Stein
0.7%
0.8%
0.5%
0.8%
0.4%
0.6%
0.8%
Goode
0.6%
0.3%
0.7%
0.2%
0.0%
0.0%
0.3%
Undecided
5.7%
5.0%
5.1%
3.7%
3.6%
3.2%
3.7%
 
NewsmaxZogby Florida U.S. Senate Tracking
 
10/14-
10/16
10/15-
10/17
10/16-
10/18
10/26-
10/28
10/27-
10/29
10/28-
10/30
11/01-11/03
Bill Nelson
43.9%
43.2%
45.7%
50.3%
50.0%
48.7%
51.5%
Connie Mack IV
35.1%
35.2%
32.8%
40.8%
40.9%
42.1%
38.4%
Undecided
12.2%
13.3%
12.4%
8.9%
9.1%
9.2%
10.2%



Pollster John Zogby: "Florida again. Governor Romney is polling 49% and that is good news for him as he leads the President by 2 points. Romney is back in the lead among independents and also leads by 6 points in the I-4 Corridor. He has pulled even with Florida's Creative Class and is at 61% among whites. His lead among Florida's NASCAR fans (54%-43%) and investor class (58%-40%) is sufficient for now. But can he sustain it for 2 more days?"



NewsmaxZogby Tracking Poll Methodology
Florida Likely Voters Poll
11/01/2012 thru 11/03/2012



Zogby Analytics conducted an online survey of 823 likely voters in Florida for Newsmax.

Based on a confidence interval of 95%, the margin of error for 823 is +/- 3.5 percentage points. This means that all other things being equal, the identical survey repeated will have results within the margin of error 95 times out of 100.

The NewsmaxZogby Poll of Florida Likely Voters sampled 35% Democrats, 37% Republicans and 28% independents; 70% white, 15% Hispanic, and 13% African American; and 15% age 18-29, 34% age 30-49, 28% age 50-64, and 23% age 65+.


 



NewsmaxZogby Ohio Tracking Poll
Obama Builds Lead in Ohio: Obama 50%- Romney 42%;
Brown Holds Lead in Senate Race



The new three-day rolling average of 827 Ohio likely voters, conducted online from Thursday (November 01) through Saturday (November 03), has a margin of sampling error of +/-3.5 percentage points.

NewsmaxZogby Ohio Tracking Poll
Presidential Two Way Horserace
 
10/14-
10/16
10/15-
10/17
10/16-
10/18
10/26-
10/28
10/27-
10/29
10/28-
10/30
11/01-11/03
Obama
45.6%
44.7%
44.8%
49.5%
48.9%
50.4%
50.2%
Romney
42.2%
44.1%
43.7%
45.9%
45.2%
44.3%
42.3%
Undecided
12.1%
11.2%
11.4%
4.6%
5.9%
5.3%
7.5%
 
NewsmaxZogby Ohio Tracking Poll
Presidential Five Way Horserace
 
10/14-
10/16
10/15-
10/17
10/16-
10/18
10/26-
10/28
10/27-
10/29
10/28-
10/30
11/01-11/03
Obama
47.0%
45.9%
45.5%
48.2%
46.8%
48.3%
49.0%
Romney
42.6%
44.3%
44.9%
44.0%
43.6%
42.8%
41.2%
Johnson
3.0%
3.0%
3.4%
2.6%
2.5%
2.4%
1.8%
Stein
0.8%
0.8%
1.2%
1.3%
1.4%
1.0%
1.0%
Goode
1.1%
1.0%
1.1%
0.7%
1.3%
1.0%
0.5%
Undecided
5.6%
5.0%
3.8%
3.2%
4.4%
4.5%
6.6%
 
NewsmaxZogby Ohio U.S. Senate Tracking Poll
 
10/14-
10/16
10/15-
10/17
10/16-
10/18
10/26-
10/28
10/27-
10/29
10/28-
10/30
11/01-11/03
Sherrod Brown 38.0% 37.6% 37.3% 42.8% 45.6% 46.2%
43.3%
Josh Mandel 36.6% 37.7% 37.1% 41.9% 38.3% 39.9%
36.1%
Scott Rupert 8.2% 8.6% 9.8% 6.6% 7.6% 6.7%
8.7%
Undecided 17.3% 16.0% 15.8% 8.7% 8.5% 7.1%
11.9%



Pollster John Zogby: "I think we can color Ohio "peacock blue". Given the volatility of this election, hold on to your "navy blue" crayon for now. But Ohio is clearly trending toward Obama. Pure speculation by me but this could be the reason why the Romney campaign has been so focused on Pennsylvania: it could be that with a tighter race there than expected and perhaps a lighter turnout in Philadelphia, that he feels he has a better chance in the Commonwealth than in the Buckeye State. Obama leads by 13 points among independents."



NewsmaxZogby Tracking Poll Methodology
Ohio Likely Voters Poll
11/01/2012 thru 11/03/2012



Zogby Analytics conducted an online survey of 827 likely voters in Ohio for Newsmax.


Based on a confidence interval of 95%, the margin of error for 827 is +/- 3.5 percentage points. This means that all other things being equal, the identical survey repeated will have results within the margin of error 95 times out of 100.


The NewsmaxZogby Poll of Ohio Likely Voters sampled 37% Democrats, 37% Republicans and 26% independents; 78% white, 5% Hispanic, and 12% African American; and 17% age 18-29, 38% age 30-49, 28% age 50-64, and 17% age 65+.


 



NewsmaxZogby Virginia Tracking Poll
Obama Up 6 in Virginia: Obama 50%-Romney 44%;
Kaine Up by 8 Over Allen



The new three-day rolling average of 819 Virginia likely voters, conducted online from Thursday (November 01) through Saturday (November 03), has a margin of sampling error of +/-3.1 percentage points.

NewsmaxZogby Virginia Tracking Poll
Presidential Two Way Horserace
 
10/14-
10/16
10/15-
10/17
10/16-
10/18
10/26-
10/28
10/27-
10/29
10/28-
10/30
11/01-11/03
Obama
49.2%
48.8%
48.0%
48.4%
45.1%
46.7%
50.4%
Romney
45.9%
46.7%
47.5%
47.1%
48.8%
47.8%
44.2%
Undecided
4.9%
4.5%
4.5%
4.5%
6.1%
5.5%
5.4%
 
NewsmaxZogby Virginia Tracking Poll
Presidential Five Way Horserace
 
10/14-
10/16
10/15-
10/17
10/16-
10/18
10/26-
10/28
10/27-
10/29
10/28-
10/30
11/01-11/03
Obama
48.7%
48.0%
47.8%
48.1%
45.3%
46.3%
49.9%
Romney
44.8%
45.4%
45.8%
46.0%
47.4%
47.1%
42.1%
Johnson
1.6%
1.9%
1.9%
0.9%
1.1%
0.8%
2.0%
Stein
0.4%
0.2%
0.3%
0.5%
0.3%
0.4%
0.2%
Goode
0.5%
0.7%
0.6%
1.1%
1.2%
1.0%
0.5%
Undecided
4.0%
3.8%
3.5%
3.5%
4.7%
4.4%
5.3%
 
NewsmaxZogby Virginia U.S. Senate Tracking Poll
 
10/14-
10/16
10/15-
10/17
10/16-
10/18
10/26-
10/28
10/27-
10/29
10/28-
10/30
11/01-11/03
Tim Kaine
46.6%
45.6%
45.3%
46.7%
45.3%
45.7%
48.8%
George Allen
43.6%
44.0%
45.3%
45.1%
45.6%
45.0%
41.4%
Undecided
9.8%
10.4%
9.5%
8.2%
9.0%
9.4%
9.8%



Pollster John Zogby: "Obama now has a 51% approval rating in Virginia -- including 53% among independents. His re-elect is also the best I have seen -- 48% feel he deserves re-election, while 44% say it is time for someone new. In the horse race, Obama leads 49% to 40% among independents and is ahead among both men and women. Similar to our nationwide poll, he has expanded his margin among the Creative Class to 18 points -- 58% to 40%. He is also polling 38% among evangelicals to Romney's 55%. In the multi-candidate race, Obama expands his lead to 8 points, 50% to 42%. Two days to go and the incumbent has hit 50%. Romney has some making up to do."



NewsmaxZogby Tracking Poll Methodology
Virginia Likely Voters Poll
11/01/2012 thru 11/03/2012



Zogby Analytics conducted an online survey of 819 likely voters in Virginia for Newsmax.


Based on a confidence interval of 95%, the margin of error for 800 is +/- 3.5 percentage points. This means that all other things being equal, the identical survey repeated will have results within the margin of error 95 times out of 100.


The NewsmaxZogby Poll of Virginia Likely Voters sampled 37% Democrats, 36% Republicans and 27% independents; 71% white, 6% Hispanic, and 19% African American; and 18% age 18-29, 38% age 30-49, 32% age 50-64, and 12% age 65+.


 



NewsmaxZogby Tracking Poll Methodology
For All Likely Voters Poll



Using trusted interactive partner resources, thousands of adults were invited to participate in this interactive survey. Each invitation is password coded and secure so that one respondent can only access the survey one time.

Using information based on census data, voter registration figures, CIA fact books and exit polls, we use complex weighting techniques to best represent the demographics of the population being surveyed. Weighted variables may include age, race, gender, region, party, education, and religion.

Subsets of the data have a larger margin of error than the whole data set. As a rule we do not rely on the validity of very small subsets of the data especially sets smaller than 50-75 respondents. At that subset we can make estimations based on the data, but in these cases the data is more qualitative than quantitative.

Additional factors can create error, such as question wording and question order.

About Zogby Analytics:

For three decades, the Zogby companies have produced polls with an unparalleled record of accuracy and reliability. Zogby telephone and interactive surveys have generally been the most accurate in U.S. Presidential elections since 1996.

Zogby Analytics is composed entirely of senior level executives from Zogby International. Zogby Analytics, along with renowned pollster John Zogby, have continued in the tradition of conducting telephone and interactive surveys, while keeping an eye on the future by incorporating social media tracking and analysis into our work.

Zogby Analytics conducts a wide variety of surveys internationally and nationally in industries, including banking, IT, medical devices, government agencies, colleges and universities, non-profits, automotive, insurance and NGOs.

Interactive Sample is provided in a joint partnership by EMI - Online Research Solutions with Zogby Analytics. EMI assists companies in making better decisions by giving them access to online and mobile research data in more than 50 countries across consumers as well as businesses and healthcare professionals. http://www.emi-ors.com