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NewsmaxZogby U.S. Nationwide Tracking Poll
Nationally Romney Up 48%-45%; Opens Up 9 Point Lead Among Independents; Obama Re-Elect Drops to 42% The new three-day rolling average of 1,015 U.S. likely voters, conducted online from Sunday (October 28) through Tuesday (October 30), has a margin of sampling error of +/-3.1 percentage points.
Pollster John Zogby: "This is not a significant lead for Romney, but he continues to move up while Obama slides down. An incumbent polling only 45% with one week to go is simply not good. Romney now leads 47% to 38% among independents. The two candidates are now pretty much tied (48% to 47% Romney) among the one in four who have already voted. Obama holds a big lead among those 12% who say they are very likely to vote (50% -35%). He has to insure that they actually do. Is the President hurt by voters in his base who can't get to the polls because of the storm or is he helped by looking like a good crisis manager?" The NewsmaxZogby Poll of U.S. Likely Voters sampled 36.8% Democrats, 34.8% Republicans and 28.4% independents; 74.3% white, 10% Hispanic, and 12% African American; and 18% age 18-29, 39% age 30-49, 25% age 50-64, and 18% age 65+. |
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October 30, 2012
NewsmaxZogby Florida Tracking Poll Gender Gap Alive in Florida; All Tied Up With 47.7% for Obama and 47.4% for Romney in Sunshine State The new three-day rolling average of 825 Florida likely voters, conducted online from Sunday (October 28) through Tuesday (October 30), has a margin of sampling error of +/-3.5 percentage points.
Pollster John Zogby: "Interestingly, two prominent pollsters have pulled out of Florida declaring it won by Romney. On the other hand, several of my colleagues are coming around to my numbers. This is very close and we will stay until the end. Obama holds a healthy 12 point lead among independents and is widening his lead among Hispanics. But Romney is polling double digits among African Americans. In a multi-candidate race, Gary Johnson's 2% and Jill Stein's 1% could be the difference between Obama and Romney." The NewsmaxZogby Poll of Florida Likely Voters sampled 35% Democrats, 37% Republicans and 28% independents; 70% white, 15% Hispanic, and 13% African American; and 15% age 18-29, 34% age 30-49, 28% age 50-64, and 23% age 65+. |
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October 30, 2012
NewsmaxZogby Ohio Tracking Poll Obama Widens Lead to 6 in Ohio -- 50%-44%; Brown Also Up 6 In Senate Race The new three-day rolling average of 826 Ohio likely voters, conducted online from Sunday (October 28) through Tuesday (October 30), has a margin of sampling error of +/-3.5 percentage points.
Pollster John Zogby: "Ohio is looking better and better for Obama. Romney is running an ad trashing the auto bailout and not getting good grades from local media for the effort. Obama is up 11 among early voters, 17 with independents, and 15 among women. His 66% to 32% lead with young voters pretty much matches his 2008 output. Obama's lead is growing daily but a week is an eternity." The NewsmaxZogby Poll of Ohio Likely Voters sampled 37% Democrats, 37% Republicans and 26% independents; 78% white, 5% Hispanic, and 12% African American; and 17% age 18-29, 38% age 30-49, 28% age 50-64, and 17% age 65+. |
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October 30, 2012
NewsmaxZogby Virginia Tracking Poll Virginia: Romney 48%-Obama 47%; Comes Down to Young Voters The new three-day rolling average of 800 Virginia likely voters, conducted online from Sunday (October 28) through Tuesday (October 30), has a margin of sampling error of +/-3.5 percentage points.
Pollster John Zogby: "It is very hard to talk about momentum this year -- this week. Romney had a lead of 4 points, but that has dissipated. Obama is doing well enough with all of his key groups, except young voters. In the 5-way horserace Romney is polling 43% among 18-29 year olds. At the same time, Romney continues to under-perform among evangelicals. The election is getting closer in time and staying close in numbers. Did the president get a slight boost from the hurricane?" The NewsmaxZogby Poll of Virginia Likely Voters sampled 37% Democrats, 36% Republicans and 27% independents; 71% white, 6% Hispanic, and 19% African American; and 18% age 18-29, 38% age 30-49, 32% age 50-64, and 12% age 65+. |
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NewsmaxZogby Tracking Poll Methodology
U.S. Nationwide Likely Voters Poll 10/28/2012 thru 10/30/2012 Zogby Analytics conducted an online survey of 1,015 likely voters in the U.S. for Newsmax. Based on a confidence interval of 95%, the margin of error for 1,015 is +/- 3.1 percentage points. This means that all other things being equal, the identical survey repeated will have results within the margin of error 95 times out of 100. The NewsmaxZogby Poll of U.S. Likely Voters sampled 36.8% Democrats, 34.8% Republicans and 28.4% independents; 74.3% white, 10% Hispanic, and 12% African American; and 18% age 18-29, 39% age 30-49, 25% age 50-64, and 18% age 65+. NewsmaxZogby Tracking Poll Methodology Florida Likely Voters Poll 10/27/2012 thru 10/29/2012 Zogby Analytics conducted an online survey of 825 likely voters in Florida for Newsmax. Based on a confidence interval of 95%, the margin of error for 825 is +/- 3.5 percentage points. This means that all other things being equal, the identical survey repeated will have results within the margin of error 95 times out of 100. The NewsmaxZogby Poll of Florida Likely Voters sampled 35% Democrats, 37% Republicans and 28% independents; 70% white, 15% Hispanic, and 13% African American; and 15% age 18-29, 34% age 30-49, 28% age 50-64, and 23% age 65+. NewsmaxZogby Tracking Poll Methodology Ohio Likely Voters Poll 10/28/2012 thru 10/30/2012 Zogby Analytics conducted an online survey of 826 likely voters in Ohio for Newsmax. Based on a confidence interval of 95%, the margin of error for 826 is +/- 3.5 percentage points. This means that all other things being equal, the identical survey repeated will have results within the margin of error 95 times out of 100. The NewsmaxZogby Poll of Ohio Likely Voters sampled 37% Democrats, 37% Republicans and 26% independents; 78% white, 5% Hispanic, and 12% African American; and 17% age 18-29, 38% age 30-49, 28% age 50-64, and 17% age 65+. NewsmaxZogby Tracking Poll Methodology Virginia Likely Voters Poll 10/28/2012 thru 10/30/2012 Zogby Analytics conducted an online survey of 800 likely voters in Virginia for Newsmax. Based on a confidence interval of 95%, the margin of error for 800 is +/- 3.5 percentage points. This means that all other things being equal, the identical survey repeated will have results within the margin of error 95 times out of 100. The NewsmaxZogby Poll of Virginia Likely Voters sampled 37% Democrats, 36% Republicans and 27% independents; 71% white, 6% Hispanic, and 19% African American; and 18% age 18-29, 38% age 30-49, 32% age 50-64, and 12% age 65+. NewsmaxZogby Tracking Poll Methodology For All Likely Voters Poll Using trusted interactive partner resources, thousands of adults were invited to participate in this interactive survey. Each invitation is password coded and secure so that one respondent can only access the survey one time. Using information based on census data, voter registration figures, CIA fact books and exit polls, we use complex weighting techniques to best represent the demographics of the population being surveyed. Weighted variables may include age, race, gender, region, party, education, and religion. Subsets of the data have a larger margin of error than the whole data set. As a rule we do not rely on the validity of very small subsets of the data especially sets smaller than 50-75 respondents. At that subset we can make estimations based on the data, but in these cases the data is more qualitative than quantitative. Additional factors can create error, such as question wording and question order. About Zogby Analytics: For three decades, the Zogby companies have produced polls with an unparalleled record of accuracy and reliability. Zogby telephone and interactive surveys have generally been the most accurate in U.S. Presidential elections since 1996. Zogby Analytics is composed entirely of senior level executives from Zogby International. Zogby Analytics, along with renowned pollster John Zogby, have continued in the tradition of conducting telephone and interactive surveys, while keeping an eye on the future by incorporating social media tracking and analysis into our work. Zogby Analytics conducts a wide variety of surveys internationally and nationally in industries, including banking, IT, medical devices, government agencies, colleges and universities, non-profits, automotive, insurance and NGOs. Interactive Sample is provided in a joint partnership by EMI - Online Research Solutions with Zogby Analytics. EMI assists companies in making better decisions by giving them access to online and mobile research data in more than 50 countries across consumers as well as businesses and healthcare professionals. www.emi-ors.com |
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