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NewsmaxZogby U.S. Nationwide Tracking Poll
Romney and Obama Too Tight Nationwide - Romney 47%-Obama 46%; All Tied Up with Minor Candidates The new three-day rolling average of 1,073 U.S. likely voters, conducted online from Saturday (October 27) through Monday (October 29), has a margin of sampling error of +/-3.1 percentage points.
Pollster John Zogby: "What is most noticeable from the national table is that undecided voters seem to be breaking toward the challenger with Romney gaining 3 points since the beginning and Obama losing 1 point. Romney is picking up support among independents. A close look inside shows that Romney is now polling 37% among Hispanics, 8% among African Americans, 37% among young voters and, for the for the first time, 63% among evangelicals. He also is polling well now among frequent Wal-Mart Shoppers (54%-41%). The minor party candidates can have a major impact as it brings Romney and Obama into a tie (at 45%). Libertarian Gary Johnson polls 5% among 18-29 year old voters, Green Jill Stein polls 2% and Constitution Virgil Goode 2% among these young voters. The storm is hitting land as I write and could have an unpredictable impact. Will lower income and minority voters be the last to have their power restored? That could weigh heavily on Obama. Or perhaps he emerges looking presidential?" NewsmaxZogby Tracking Poll Methodology U.S. Nationwide Likely Voters Poll 10/27/2012 thru 10/29/2012 Zogby Analytics conducted an online survey of 1,073 likely voters in the U.S. for Newsmax. Based on a confidence interval of 95%, the margin of error for 1,073 is +/- 3.1 percentage points. This means that all other things being equal, the identical survey repeated will have results within the margin of error 95 times out of 100. The NewsmaxZogby Poll of U.S. Likely Voters sampled 36.4% Democrats, 34.6% Republicans and 29% independents; 74.3% white, 10% Hispanic, and 12% African American; and 18% age 18-29, 39% age 30-49, 25% age 50-64, and 18% age 65+. |
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NewsmaxZogby Florida Tracking Poll
Obama Moves Up in Florida - Now Polls 48% to Romney's 47%; Nelson Hits 50% in Senate Race and Leads By 9 Points The new three-day rolling average of 828 Florida likely voters, conducted online from Saturday (October 27) through Monday (October 29), has a margin of sampling error of +/-3.5 percentage points.
Pollster John Zogby: "Florida has been very close since 2000. The president won a squeaker in 2008 and his base looks solid: 68% of Hispanics, 86% of African Americans, and 50% of Creatives. He has tightened up the race in the I-4 Corridor and leads among independents 54% to 37% and among Catholics 51% to 43%. All of that to get into a 1 point lead. In a multi-candidate race, the race is all tied up." NewsmaxZogby Tracking Poll Methodology
Florida Likely Voters Poll 10/27/2012 thru 10/29/2012 Zogby Analytics conducted an online survey of 828 likely voters in Florida for Newsmax. Based on a confidence interval of 95%, the margin of error for 828 is +/- 3.5 percentage points. This means that all other things being equal, the identical survey repeated will have results within the margin of error 95 times out of 100. The NewsmaxZogby Poll of Florida Likely Voters sampled 35% Democrats, 37% Republicans and 28% independents; 70% white, 15% Hispanic, and 13% African American; and 15% age 18-29, 34% age 30-49, 28% age 50-64, and 23% age 65+. |
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NewsmaxZogby Ohio Tracking Poll
Obama Up 4 in Ohio -- 49%-45%; Brown Grows Lead to 8 Points The new three-day rolling average of 825 Ohio likely voters, conducted online from Saturday (October 27) through Monday (October 29), has a margin of sampling error of +/-3.5 percentage points.
Pollster John Zogby: "The silver lining for Obama is if there are two states to be leading, best that they be Ohio and Florida. In Ohio, the president seems to be pulling away among independents with a 15 point lead. He is still upside down in his re-elect 43%-46%. Obama is comfortably ahead among 18-29 year olds (60%-39), and in a 5-way race, the president leads by 14 points: 51% to 37%, with Johnson polling 2%, Jill Stein with 4%, and Virgil Goode 5%. While his lead holds, these candidates can drain support from a key constituency for the president." NewsmaxZogby Tracking Poll Methodology Ohio Likely Voters Poll 10/27/2012 thru 10/29/2012 Zogby Analytics conducted an online survey of 825 likely voters in Ohio for Newsmax. Based on a confidence interval of 95%, the margin of error for 825 is +/- 3.5 percentage points. This means that all other things being equal, the identical survey repeated will have results within the margin of error 95 times out of 100. The NewsmaxZogby Poll of Ohio Likely Voters sampled 37% Democrats, 37% Republicans and 26% independents; 78% white, 5% Hispanic, and 12% African American; and 17% age 18-29, 38% age 30-49, 28% age 50-64, and 17% age 65+. |
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NewsmaxZogby Virginia Tracking Poll
See-saw in Virginia as Romney Now Leads By 4 Points -- 49%-45%; Allen and Kaine Stay Close -- Allen 46% to Kaine's 45% The new three-day rolling average of 829 Virginia likely voters, conducted online from Saturday (October 27) through Monday (October 29), has a margin of sampling error of +/-3.5 percentage points.
Pollster John Zogby: "Today's numbers reveal why the lead in the presidential race in Virginia has changed in the last few days. Only 42% of likely voters now feel Obama deserves to be re-elected, while 50% say it is time for someone new. That includes 35% of independents who say the president deserves to be re-elected. In the horse race, Romney has pulled into a small lead among independents (44% to 39%), but 17% are still undecided. Romney holds on to a 2 point lead with minor candidates included -- 47% to Obama's 45%, with Johnson at 1% and native Virginian Goode polling 1%." NewsmaxZogby Tracking Poll Methodology Virginia Likely Voters Poll 10/27/2012 thru 10/29/2012 Zogby Analytics conducted an online survey of 829 likely voters in Virginia for Newsmax. Based on a confidence interval of 95%, the margin of error for 829 is +/- 3.5 percentage points. This means that all other things being equal, the identical survey repeated will have results within the margin of error 95 times out of 100. The NewsmaxZogby Poll of Virginia Likely Voters sampled 37% Democrats, 36% Republicans and 27% independents; 71% white, 6% Hispanic, and 19% African American; and 18% age 18-29, 38% age 30-49, 32% age 50-64, and 12% age 65+. |
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Additional Methodology For all polls:
Using trusted interactive partner resources, thousands of adults were invited to participate in this interactive survey. Each invitation is password coded and secure so that one respondent can only access the survey one time. Using information based on census data, voter registration figures, CIA fact books and exit polls, we use complex weighting techniques to best represent the demographics of the population being surveyed. Weighted variables may include age, race, gender, region, party, education, and religion. Subsets of the data have a larger margin of error than the whole data set. As a rule we do not rely on the validity of very small subsets of the data especially sets smaller than 50-75 respondents. At that subset we can make estimations based on the data, but in these cases the data is more qualitative than quantitative. Additional factors can create error, such as question wording and question order. About Zogby Analytics: For three decades, the Zogby companies have produced polls with an unparalleled record of accuracy and reliability. Zogby telephone and interactive surveys have generally been the most accurate in U.S. Presidential elections since 1996. Zogby Analytics is composed entirely of senior level executives from Zogby International. Zogby Analytics, along with renowned pollster John Zogby, have continued in the tradition of conducting telephone and interactive surveys, while keeping an eye on the future by incorporating social media tracking and analysis into our work. Zogby Analytics conducts a wide variety of surveys internationally and nationally in industries, including banking, IT, medical devices, government agencies, colleges and universities, non-profits, automotive, insurance and NGOs. Interactive Sample is provided in a joint partnership by EMI - Online Research Solutions with Zogby Analytics. EMI assists companies in making better decisions by giving them access to online and mobile research data in more than 50 countries across consumers as well as businesses and healthcare professionals. www.emi-ors.com |
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