|
NewsmaxZogby U.S. Nationwide Tracking Poll
Presidential Race: 2000 All Over Again; Romney 47%-46% Nationwide The new three-day rolling average of 1,076 U.S. likely voters, conducted online from Friday (October 26) through Sunday (October 28), has a margin of sampling error of +/-3.0 percentage points.
Pollster John Zogby: "With 8 days to go neither candidate really has sufficient momentum. Nationwide, Romney leads among those who already voted and is up 3 points among independents. His 10 point lead among men is nearly offset by Obama's 6 point lead among women. Obama leads by 30 among Hispanics but 8% are now undecided. Romney has picked up late support among evangelicals, hitting 62% for the first time. He is also virtually tied with Obama among the Creative Class. This, of course, is all about turnout and a storm impacting some key states is another wild card. At this point in time, I am looking at my national and battleground numbers from 2000." The NewsmaxZogby Poll of U.S. Likely Voters sampled 37% Democrats, 35% Republicans and 28.1% independents; 74.3% white, 10% Hispanic, and 12% African American; and 18% age 18-29, 39% age 30-49, 25% age 50-64, and 18% age 65+. Based on a confidence interval of 95%, the margin of error for 1,076 is +/- 3.0 percentage points. This means that all other things being equal, the identical survey repeated will have results within the margin of error 95 times out of 100. |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|
October 29, 2012
NewsmaxZogby Virginia Tracking Poll Nail-biter In Virginia, too -- Obama 48% to Romney 47% The new three-day rolling average of 827 Virginia likely voters, conducted online from Friday (October 26) through Sunday (October 28), has a margin of sampling error of +/-3.5 percentage points.
Pollster John Zogby: "In Virginia, Obama has also pulled ahead by 9 points among independents, women 54%-42%, and is ahead 96% to 2% among African Americans. Obama is polling 42% (much higher than 2008) among evangelicals (to Romney's 55%). Is that the Mormon factor? With three minor candidates each polling 1%, Obama leads by a little more. Romney leads among Virginians who have already voted and among those who are definitely voting. Obama has a wide lead among those who say they are "very likely" to vote. Will they come out on Election Day?" The NewsmaxZogby Poll of Virginia Likely Voters sampled 37% Democrats, 37% Republicans and 26% independents; 71% white, 6% Hispanic, and 19% African American; and 18% age 18-29, 38% age 30-49, 32% age 50-64, and 12% age 65+. Based on a confidence interval of 95%, the margin of error for 827 is +/- 3.5 percentage points. This means that all other things being equal, the identical survey repeated will have results within the margin of error 95 times out of 100. |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|
October 29, 2012
NewsmaxZogby Ohio Tracking Poll In Ohio Obama Leads by 4, 50%-46%; Senate Race Is Dead Heat The new three-day rolling average of 827 Ohio likely voters, conducted online from Friday (October 26) through Sunday (October 28), has a margin of sampling error of +/-3.5 percentage points.
Pollster John Zogby: "Even though Obama's job performance (48% Approve/49% Disapprove) and re-elect (45%-46%) are upside down, he has opened up a slightly bigger lead in Ohio by virtue of taking the lead among independents (8 points), widening his lead among women (11 points), and consolidating his support among African Americans and young voters to percentages closer to what he did in 2008. He also leads among Catholics by 9 points and scoring 39% (to Romney's 58%) among evangelicals." The NewsmaxZogby Poll of Ohio Likely Voters sampled 37% Democrats, 37% Republicans and 26% independents; 78% white, 5% Hispanic, and 12% African American; and 16.9% age 18-29, 38% age 30-49, 28.1% age 50-64, and 17% age 65+. Based on a confidence interval of 95%, the margin of error for 827 is +/- 3.5 percentage points. This means that all other things being equal, the identical survey repeated will have results within the margin of error 95 times out of 100. |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|
October 29, 2012
NewsmaxZogby Florida Tracking Poll Romney Up By 1 Point in Florida, 48%-47%; Romney Also Leads With Johnson Added In The new three-day rolling average of 827 Florida likely voters, conducted online from Friday (October 26) through Sunday (October 28), has a margin of sampling error of +/-3.5 percentage points.
Pollster John Zogby: "Obama and Romney are in a dead heat among men and women. While Obama leads a few points among independents, Romney has an even stronger lead among Republicans than Obama has among Democrats. Romney is over performing the GOP's share from 2008 among young voters, but Obama is outperforming his own numbers among evangelicals. Romney has especially grown his lead among NASCAR fans, a group he had been lagging. The difference right now is the extremely important Creative Class where the two candidates are pretty much tied. Obama had a huge advantage among these voters in 2008, which was a critical part of his victory coalition in the battleground states." The NewsmaxZogby Poll of Florida Likely Voters sampled 35% Democrats, 37% Republicans and 28% independents; 70% white, 15% Hispanic, and 13% African American; and 15% age 18-29, 34% age 30-49, 28% age 50-64, and 23% age 65+. Based on a confidence interval of 95%, the margin of error for 827 is +/- 3.5 percentage points. This means that all other things being equal, the identical survey repeated will have results within the margin of error 95 times out of 100. |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|
NewsmaxZogby Tracking Poll Methodology
U.S. Nationwide Likely Voters Poll 10/26/2012 thru 10/28/2012 Zogby Analytics conducted an online survey of 1,076 likely voters in the U.S. for Newsmax. Based on a confidence interval of 95%, the margin of error for 1,076 is +/- 3.0 percentage points. This means that all other things being equal, the identical survey repeated will have results within the margin of error 95 times out of 100. The NewsmaxZogby Poll of U.S. Likely Voters sampled 37% Democrats, 35% Republicans and 28.1% independents; 74.3% white, 10% Hispanic, and 12% African American; and 18% age 18-29, 39% age 30-49, 25% age 50-64, and 18% age 65+. NewsmaxZogby Tracking Poll Methodology
Virginia Likely Voters Poll 10/26/2012 thru 10/28/2012 Zogby Analytics conducted an online survey of 827 likely voters in Virginia for Newsmax. Based on a confidence interval of 95%, the margin of error for 827 is +/- 3.5 percentage points. This means that all other things being equal, the identical survey repeated will have results within the margin of error 95 times out of 100. The NewsmaxZogby Poll of Virginia Likely Voters sampled 37% Democrats, 37% Republicans and 26% independents; 71% white, 6% Hispanic, and 19% African American; and 18% age 18-29, 38% age 30-49, 32% age 50-64, and 12% age 65+. NewsmaxZogby Tracking Poll Methodology
Ohio Likely Voters Poll 10/26/2012 thru 10/28/2012 Zogby Analytics conducted an online survey of 827 likely voters in Ohio for Newsmax. Based on a confidence interval of 95%, the margin of error for 827 is +/- 3.5 percentage points. This means that all other things being equal, the identical survey repeated will have results within the margin of error 95 times out of 100. The NewsmaxZogby Poll of Ohio Likely Voters sampled 37% Democrats, 37% Republicans and 26% independents; 78% white, 5% Hispanic, and 12% African American; and 16.9% age 18-29, 38% age 30-49, 28.1% age 50-64, and 17% age 65+. NewsmaxZogby Tracking Poll Methodology
Florida Likely Voters Poll 10/26/2012 thru 10/28/2012 Zogby Analytics conducted an online survey of 827 likely voters in Florida for Newsmax. Based on a confidence interval of 95%, the margin of error for 827 is +/- 3.5 percentage points. This means that all other things being equal, the identical survey repeated will have results within the margin of error 95 times out of 100. The NewsmaxZogby Poll of Florida Likely Voters sampled 35% Democrats, 37% Republicans and 28% independents; 70% white, 15% Hispanic, and 13% African American; and 15% age 18-29, 34% age 30-49, 28% age 50-64, and 23% age 65+. Additional Methodology For all polls: Using trusted interactive partner resources, thousands of adults were invited to participate in this interactive survey. Each invitation is password coded and secure so that one respondent can only access the survey one time. Using information based on census data, voter registration figures, CIA fact books and exit polls, we use complex weighting techniques to best represent the demographics of the population being surveyed. Weighted variables may include age, race, gender, region, party, education, and religion. Subsets of the data have a larger margin of error than the whole data set. As a rule we do not rely on the validity of very small subsets of the data especially sets smaller than 50-75 respondents. At that subset we can make estimations based on the data, but in these cases the data is more qualitative than quantitative. Additional factors can create error, such as question wording and question order. About Zogby Analytics: For three decades, the Zogby companies have produced polls with an unparalleled record of accuracy and reliability. Zogby telephone and interactive surveys have generally been the most accurate in U.S. Presidential elections since 1996. Zogby Analytics is composed entirely of senior level executives from Zogby International. Zogby Analytics, along with renowned pollster John Zogby, have continued in the tradition of conducting telephone and interactive surveys, while keeping an eye on the future by incorporating social media tracking and analysis into our work. Zogby Analytics conducts a wide variety of surveys internationally and nationally in industries, including banking, IT, medical devices, government agencies, colleges and universities, non-profits, automotive, insurance and NGOs. Interactive Sample is provided in a joint partnership by EMI - Online Research Solutions with Zogby Analytics. EMI assists companies in making better decisions by giving them access to online and mobile research data in more than 50 countries across consumers as well as businesses and healthcare professionals. www.emi-ors.com |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||