A brand new NewsmaxZogby Poll shows President Barack Obama's ever-so-slight lead over GOP challenger Mitt Romney is gone in the third day of tracking among Virginia likely voters, the race is tied at 48%. The online poll of 834 likely voters was conducted Tuesday (October 23) through Thursday (October 25) and has a margin-of-sampling error of +/- 3.5 percentage points.
The joint venture between Florida-based publisher and New York State-based pollster will feature tracking polls in Ohio, Florida, Virginia and nationally right up to Election Day. All reported results include voters who have already voted and those voters initially undecided who indicated they are leaning toward a candidate.
In the third release of the three-day tracking of Virginia voters, the President leads among Democrats (92%-7%), in the Northern Virginia-DC suburbs (48%-43%) and Richmond-Norfolk region (56%-41%), 18-29 year olds (56%-42%), 30-49 year olds (55%-41%), African Americans (96%-3%), liberals (86%-13%), Moderates (57%-39%), women (51%-46%), and the Creative Class (52%-43%).
Governor Romney now leads with independents (46%-42%), and continues leading among Republicans (91%-7%), voters over 65 (60%-36%), conservatives (78%-17%), whites (60%-35%), evangelicals (57%-40%), married voters (55%-41%), men (49%-46%), and investors (56%-41%).
By 51%-46%, more Virginia likely voters disapprove than approve of President Obama's job performance. The groups contributing to President Obama's job performance disapproval include independents (54%-40%), 50-64 year olds (58%-41%), voters over 65(63%-36%), and whites (65%-34%). At the same time 47% of poll respondents feel that it is time for someone new as President, and 44% say the President Obama deserves to be reelected.
Meanwhile in the race for the U.S. Senate, Democrat Tim Kaine has seen his very small lead over Republican George Allen evaporate (45%-45%). Kaine leads among Democrats (83%-6%), independents (44%-40%), 18-29 year olds (48%-42%) and 30-49 year olds (51%-40%), women (47%-43%), Northern Virginia - DC suburbs (51%-40%) and the Richmond-Norfolk region (50%-40%), liberals (88%-10%) and moderates (55%-35%), African Americans (86%-2%), and Catholics (48%-40%)
Allen leads among Republicans (89%-7%), 50-64 year olds (51%-39%), voters over 65 (47%-43%), the western region (52%-39%), conservatives (79%-13%), whites (59%-34%), evangelicals (54%-35%), married voters (51%-39%), men (47%-44%), and NASCAR fans (47%-46%).
Pollster John Zogby: "It has been said that we will know how this race ends when we know Virginia and Ohio, the only issue is that we don't know when we will know. Today's, numbers validate that. I have been asked many times if Libertarian Gary Johnson could be a decisive factor. In the multi candidate matchup the results are Obama 47.8%, Romney 45.8%, and Johnson 1.9%. Ask me again - maybe"
The NewsmaxZogby Poll of Virginia Likely Voters sampled 37% Democrats, 36% Republicans and 27% independents; 71% white, 6% Hispanic, and 19% African American; and 18% age 18-29, 38% age 30-49, 32% age 50-64, and 12% age 65+.
NewsmaxZogby Tracking Poll Methodology
Virginia Likely Voters Poll
10/23/2012 thru 10/25/2012
Zogby Analytics conducted an online survey of 824 likely voters in Virginia for Newsmax.
Using trusted interactive partner resources, thousands of adults were invited to participate in this interactive survey. Each invitation is password coded and secure so that one respondent can only access the survey one time.
Using information based on census data, voter registration figures, CIA fact books and exit polls, we use complex weighting techniques to best represent the demographics of the population being surveyed. Weighted variables may include age, race, gender, region, party, education, and religion.
Based on a confidence interval of 95%, the margin of error for 824 is +/- 3.5 percentage points. This means that all other things being equal, the identical survey repeated will have results within the margin of error 95 times out of 100.
Subsets of the data have a larger margin of error than the whole data set. As a rule we do not rely on the validity of very small subsets of the data especially sets smaller than 50-75 respondents. At that subset we can make estimations based on the data, but in these cases the data is more qualitative than quantitative.
Additional factors can create error, such as question wording and question order.
The NewsmaxZogby Poll of Virginia Likely Voters sampled 37% Democrats, 36% Republicans and 27% independents; 71% white, 6% Hispanic, and 19% African American; and 18% age 18-29, 38% age 30-49, 32% age 50-64, and 12% age 65+.
##
About Zogby Analytics:
For three decades, the Zogby companies have produced polls with an unparalleled record of accuracy and reliability. Zogby telephone and interactive surveys have generally been the most accurate in U.S. Presidential elections since 1996.
Zogby Analytics is composed entirely of senior level executives from Zogby International. Zogby Analytics, along with renowned pollster John Zogby, have continued in the tradition of conducting telephone and interactive surveys, while keeping an eye on the future by incorporating social media tracking and analysis into our work.
Zogby Analytics conducts a wide variety of surveys internationally and nationally in industries, including banking, IT, medical devices, government agencies, colleges and universities, non-profits, automotive, insurance and NGOs.
Interactive Sample is provided in a joint partnership by EMI - Online Research Solutions with Zogby Analytics. EMI assists companies in making better decisions by giving them access to online and mobile research data in more than 50 countries across consumers as well as businesses and healthcare professionals. www.emi-ors.com
