A brand new NewsmaxZogby Poll shows President Barack Obama continues his ever-so-slight lead over GOP challenger Mitt Romney 49% to 47% among Virginia likely voters. The online poll of 832 likely voters was conducted Monday (October 22) through Wednesday (October 24) and has a margin-of-sampling error of +/- 3.5 percentage points.
The joint venture between Florida-based publisher and New York State-based pollster will feature tracking polls in Ohio, Florida, Virginia and nationally right up to Election Day.
All reported results include voters who have already voted and those voters initially undecided who indicated they are leaning toward a candidate.
In the second release of the three-day tracking of Virginia voters, the President leads among Democrats (92%-6%), independents (47%-41%), a contracting lead in the Northern Virginia-DC suburbs (48%-42%), Richmond-Norfolk region (57%-39%), 18-29 year olds (57%-39%), 30-49 year olds (51%-45%), African Americans (92%-5%), liberals (88%-11%), Moderates (59%-37%), Catholics (49%-45%), women (52%-45%), and the Creative Class (53%-43%).
Governor Romney leads among Republicans (93%-5%), voters over 65 (53%-42%), conservatives (82%-14%), whites (58%-37%), evangelicals (57%-40%), married voters (55%-40%), and investors (55%-39%),
Meanwhile in the race for the U.S. Senate, Democrat Tim Kaine holds a very small lead over Republican George Allen (46%-44%). Kaine leads among Democrats (82%-6%), independents (47%-35%), 18-29 year olds (51%-36%) and 30-49 year olds (49%-42%), Northern Virginia - DC suburbs (52%-38%) and the Richmond-Norfolk region (53%-37%), liberals (88%-9%) and moderates (56%-31%), African Americans (86%-2%), and Catholics (47%-35%)
Allen leads among Republicans (90%-7%), 50-64 year olds (45%-42%), voters over 65 (49%-43%), the western region (53%-36%), conservatives (82%-11%), whites (57%-35%), evangelicals (55%-36%), married voters (52%-38%), men (47%-44%), and NASCAR fans (53%-39%).
Pollster John Zogby: "There is no question that this all important state is up for grabs. While Ohio and Florida receive so much attention, Virginia possibly determines the balance of the U.S. Senate as well as the next presidency. No huge shifts but some groups are moving, it won't take much movement to flip this race."
The NewsmaxZogby Poll of Virginia Likely Voters sampled 37% Democrats, 36% Republicans and 27% independents; 71% white, 6% Hispanic, and 19% African American; and 18% age 18-29, 38% age 30-49, 32% age 50-64, and 12% age 65+.
NewsmaxZogby Tracking Poll Methodology
Virginia Likely Voters Poll
10/22/2012 thru 10/24/2012
Zogby Analytics conducted an online survey of 832 likely voters in Virginia for Newsmax.
Using trusted interactive partner resources, thousands of adults were invited to participate in this interactive survey. Each invitation is password coded and secure so that one respondent can only access the survey one time.
Using information based on census data, voter registration figures, CIA fact books and exit polls, we use complex weighting techniques to best represent the demographics of the population being surveyed. Weighted variables may include age, race, gender, region, party, education, and religion.
Based on a confidence interval of 95%, the margin of error for 832 is +/- 3.5 percentage points. This means that all other things being equal, the identical survey repeated will have results within the margin of error 95 times out of 100.
Subsets of the data have a larger margin of error than the whole data set. As a rule we do not rely on the validity of very small subsets of the data especially sets smaller than 50-75 respondents. At that subset we can make estimations based on the data, but in these cases the data is more qualitative than quantitative.
Additional factors can create error, such as question wording and question order.
The NewsmaxZogby Poll of Virginia Likely Voters sampled 37% Democrats, 36% Republicans and 27% independents; 71% white, 6% Hispanic, and 19% African American; and 18% age 18-29, 38% age 30-49, 32% age 50-64, and 12% age 65+.
About Zogby Analytics:
For three decades, the Zogby companies have produced polls with an unparalleled record of accuracy and reliability. Zogby telephone and interactive surveys have generally been the most accurate in U.S. Presidential elections since 1996.
Zogby Analytics is composed entirely of senior level executives from Zogby International. Zogby Analytics, along with renowned pollster John Zogby, have continued in the tradition of conducting telephone and interactive surveys, while keeping an eye on the future by incorporating social media tracking and analysis into our work.
Zogby Analytics conducts a wide variety of surveys internationally and nationally in industries, including banking, IT, medical devices, government agencies, colleges and universities, non-profits, automotive, insurance and NGOs.
Interactive Sample is provided in a joint partnership by EMI - Online Research Solutions with Zogby Analytics. EMI assists companies in making better decisions by giving them access to online and mobile research data in more than 50 countries across consumers as well as businesses and healthcare professionals. www.emi-ors.com