The sunshine state is heating up in the race for one of the biggest prizes during the GOP primary season. Both Mitt Romney and Newt Gingrich are looking to come away with a decisive victory that could potentially seal the GOP nomination. So far Gingrich has used his surprising victory in South Carolina to catapult him to leading in the polls. The Real Clear Politics Average of five post SC primary polls shows Gingrich up by a margin of 4.
Last night's debate was tantamount to all-out war between Gingrich and Romney, who spent the whole night clawing each other. The night's best lines went to Ron Paul, while Rick Santorum came away looking stronger and positioned himself as the one who wanted to rise above the fray, although he did lay into Romney and Gingrich over their stances on healthcare when convenient.
Although Romney and Gingrich are in a dead heat, is this race really as competitive as it looks? Is this the same old battle being fought out by the Republican establishment, who favor Romney, versus more conservative and religious elements of the GOP, who feel Newt is the true conservative candidate? There are certain demographics that do favor one versus the other and to be honest they are not all that surprising. Voters who are Latino, over 50, and those with college degrees and who live in rural and exurban areas support Romney. Whereas, tea party supporters and born agains show strong support for Gingrich. That's not the making of a barn burner. If you told me Latinos suddenly were going Gingrich's way then I would say we got something on our hands.
A recent CNN/Time poll showed that four out of five Gingrich supporters' minds were made up versus only two thirds of Romney supporters whose minds were made up. Overall, 25% were liable to change their minds. Yikes!
That doesn't bode well for Romney who has always had to deal with a flaky personality. It's pretty obvious he needs a win badly otherwise he may be damaged goods by the time he has to face Obama. It's one thing when you can't make up your mind yourself but it's a whole different story when voters can't make up their minds about you either.