The newest Zogby Analytics poll shows President Barack Obama's overall approval rating at 44%, while 54% disapprove, and 2% are not sure. The new online poll, conducted October 3-5 among 898 likely voters nationwide, has Mr. Obama in a negligibly improved position from last month's Zogby Poll which showed him pretty much the same at 43% approval and 55% disapproval.

The President noticeably improved his position among men (42% to 47%), 18-29 year olds (from 43% to 50%), 30-49 year olds (47% to 52%), moderates (44% to 49%), whites (29% to 35%), and Hispanics (64% to 72%).

He experienced significant drops in confidence among 50-64 year olds (42% to 37%), African Americans (87% to 77%), Born Again/Evangelicals (34% to 24%), and members of the Investor Class (52% to 48%).

While his support among liberals is solid at 81%, he is only receiving 79% support among registered and self-identified Democrats.

The President's numbers may be inching up but he is either not connecting on his message or is drowned out by events. In any event, he is not projecting a narrative of confidence as voters get closer to making their choices in November. The new Zogby Analytics survey still has only 27% of voters agreeing that "things in the United States are heading in the right direction," an ominous sign for any sitting chief executive.

Recent economic news may be enabling the President to hold his own with the public. The irony for Mr. Obama is that while new jobs may be created and the unemployment rate has gone down dramatically on his watch, average real wages continue to lose ground and few Americans feel better about the economy and their future. In any event, "good" economic news came on the same day as another gruesome beheading of a British hostage by ISIL and news that an Ebola victim's condition in Dallas had worsened. Thus, whatever positive narrative the President may be trying to bring to the fore, the horrors of the regular news cycle are drowning him out.

Furthermore, he has not been helped by criticism from his closest confidantes. His former chief strategist, David Axelrod, has chastised him for linking his own policies to the November ballot and his former Secretary of Defense and CIA Director, Leon Panetta, has gone out of his way to pound the President for previous inaction and indecision that led to, in Panetta's view, the current crisis with ISIL.

With all this, however, the President's numbers still show a slight bump - both in the new Zogby Analytics poll and in aggregated averages. His approval ratings are nowhere near bragging rights levels, yet they are also not at failure levels either. Mr. Obama can still raise money and can still induce the worst fears of his opposition among the key Democratic base. He will need to do that or risk a big loss in November. His numbers are picking up among young voters - but nowhere near they need to be to be victorious. He has rallied Hispanic voters in recent days, but clearly he has work to do regain confidence among African Americans. There can indeed be, in the final analysis, a GOP wave next month that turns the control of the U.S. Senate in their favor. I am simply not there yet. There can also be a move away from the GOP, which I will reveal in my next report on this latest poll.