The pundits seem to be on board with the prediction that the Republicans will take control of the Senate this election. GOP candidates hold commanding leads in two states where the incumbent U.S. Senator is a Democrat (Montana and West Virginia). Up until last week South Dakota made it three on that list, but an independent candidate is making things more interesting. Republicans currently lead in another batch of states - Iowa, Arkansas, Louisiana, Alaska and Colorado - but none of those leads is outside the margin of error and the numbers of undecided voters are still too high. As of today, the incumbent Democrat is leading in North Carolina, but her lead is only a couple of points. And the races are still too close to call in Kentucky, Georgia, and Kansas where the incumbents are Republican.

So where do we stand? The Republicans could indeed pick up the net six seats they need to capture a majority of the Senate. And if the election were held today, they probably would. But the election is not today and there are too many variables that even defy the best of the prognosticators' efforts. Let me try to simplify things. In our latest Zogby Analytics Poll, the Democrats lead the so-called Congressional by 5 points - 43% to 38% -- but 6% say they intend to vote for another candidate and 13% are still undecided. A large chunk of those undecided voters are independents and many of those who intend to vote for a third party candidate are conservatives. The Democrats are polling well among women (46% to 34%), young voters (54% to 28%), Hispanics (62% to 28%), African Americans (83% to 8%), union household voters (55% to 27%), and Creative Class voters (53% to 32%). The GOP is scoring well among men (46% to 40%), voters over 70 (50% to 31%), whites (45% to 33%), and Catholics (43% to 39%).

When we asked which party voters preferred to control the Senate, the Democrats won 40% to the GOP's 38% -- but 24% were still not sure.

I have already written a number of posts on the key deciding demographics of this election. I still believe that 2014 is the Millennials' Moment. If they represent around 14%-15% of the total vote, the Democrats will hold on to the Senate and the Obama Coalition will remain intact. That kind of turnout would represent a substantial increase over 2010 (when 18-29 year olds were about 10%) but less than the 19% that voted in 2008 and 2012. Since about 40% of Millennials are non-white, that increase in turnout would bring out a larger number of non-whites who normally tilt heavily Democratic.

What will decide the turnout and result? As of right now, there are two deciding issues: national security and income inequality. The GOP has regained its sovereignty over the national security issue and this issue currently dominates the news agenda and the public's hearts and minds. It is about the Islamic State and its vow to strike Americans and it is about the Ebola Scare. In the Zogby Poll, the GOP is seen as better able to handle national security by a factor of 38% to 19%, meaning the Democrats have lost a tremendous amount of ground on this issue. One in four (23%) voters say neither party is sufficiently equipped to deal with it. Income inequality is all about the middle class losing ground despite new job creation and a reduction in the unemployment rate. On this issue, Democrats outpoll the Republicans 37% to 16%. But again, a large percentage of voters choose neither party.

As long as the discussion is focused on security, the GOP holds the upper hand, but it is still difficult to see any wave in their direction. If the President and Democratic candidates raise their voices above ISIL and Ebola news, then they have a chance to rally their vote and hold on to the Senate.

It all comes down to this. And it is too soon to make a call.