As of today, the Republicans appear to be leading in enough state races to take control of the next Senate. Needing a net gain of six seats, they have solid leads in West Virginia and Montana; respectable leads in Arkansas, Louisiana, and Alaska. And they are holding on to slim leads in Iowa, Colorado, and South Dakota. They also appear to be holding Kentucky. If they win all of these, they can afford to drop a couple of close ones and still win enough seats. On the other hand, if Democrats win a few close ones and/or pick up seats in Georgia and Kansas (and possibly South Dakota), then Democrats hold the Senate.

Either way it is still close. In the unlikely scenario that the GOP wins everything, that will be a wave - but I just don't see that happening yet. The GOP may be leading while the Democrats may very well have their vaunted voter turnout operation to increase voting by their core constituencies. The only way there will be a wave is if the GOP wins it all and does so in a crushing way.

Let me repeat: I just don't see that happening yet. Here is why:

1.      When it comes to who voters trust more to tell the truth, voters give the edge to President Barack Obama by a factor of 36% to 17% over the GOP leadership in Congress. At the same time, 39% of the voters say "neither". Those kinds of numbers are not the stuff of which "sweeps" and "waves" are made. It is one thing to say that President Obama has low numbers but his numbers are approximately three times more popular than the GOP in Congress. On the trust issue, women trust the President to tell the truth 38% to 14%, with 37% saying neither. Can we deduce from that the recent AP/GfK Poll finding that women will vote Republican? Look at the age groups: 18-29 year olds give the President the edge 44% to 14% (32% neither); 30-49 year olds 42% to 14% (32% neither); 50-64 year olds 32% to 8% (44% neither), and voters over 65 years old 22% to 25% (51% neither). Only 21% of independents trust the President to tell the truth - but 8% trust the GOP and 61% say neither.

2.      We asked who should control the Senate? Overall the Democrats lead 40% to 38% over the Republicans - with 21% not sure. Remember this is a poll conducted October 15-16. Gun owners favor the GOP by only 3 points (45% to 42%). Investors favor the GOP by only 4 points (45% to 41%). Independents favor the GOP 32% to 27%, with 41% not sure. But those fearful of losing a job favor the Democrats (49% to 38%), as do Weekly Wal-Mart Shoppers (49% to 37%).

Anything can happen. But as of today, there are no signs of a wave.