Make no mistake about it: when President Barack Obama declared a week ago that his policies will be on the ballot on November 4, he meant it and voters understood it. To be sure, there are plenty of local issues, but this election is all about Mr. Obama, national security, income inequality, jobs, and the state of the nation.

According to our latest Zogby Analytics Poll (October 28-29, 889 likely voters nationwide, +/-3.5 percentage points), the President's approval rating is holding steady at 45%, but things get much more complicated for him, the Republicans, and the voters from there. Mr. Obama has not lost any ground with key demographic groups since the Zogby Poll of October 15-16, but the public mood is still quite sour. Only 28% feel the nation is headed in the right direction, while 68% say "things are off on the wrong track". Normally, the measurement of the country's direction is a good barometric reading of how an upcoming election will turn out, except the GOP gets very little good news from this poll. Congressional Democrats receive a 34% approval rating (58% disapprove), but Congressional Republicans only score a 25% approval from voters, with 68% disapproving. The Congressional Generic ballot question - "for which party's candidate do you plan to vote for Congress in your district" - favors the Democrats by 6 points, 44% to 38%. And we see the Democrats doing pretty well among all of their key constituency groups with leads among 18-29 year olds (54%-24%), 30-49 year olds (45% to 34%), Democrats 89% to 4%, Catholics (49% to 43%, Hispanics (72%-19%), African Americans (79% to 6%), the Creative Class (51% to 38%) and the Investor Class (49% to 43%).

We also see that the Democratic base groups would be impressed by a vigorous campaign from the President. Thus, "of President Obama were to endorse the Democratic candidate", Democrats would more likely to vote for the candidate 54% to 8%, as would 18-29 year olds (40% to 25%) Hispanics (63% to 11%) and African Americans (55% to 10%). The reverse seems to hold as well: "if the Democratic candidate says he/she will work closely with President Obama", 63% of Democrats are more likely to vote for the candidate (to 10% less likely), 72% of Hispanics (12% less likely) and 65% of African Americans (9% less likely). Now, of course, neither of these arguments works well with independents - 13% more likely to support and 31% less likely if Mr. Obama endorses, and 20% more likely to support and 39% less likely if the candidate pledges to work closely with Mr. Obama. But as Democrats discovered in 2010, there is a greater need to secure the base and ensure that they turnout.

One of the key findings from the new poll is that the President's approval rating is only averaged at 38% in those states with battleground Senate races. The sub-sample is only 159 likely voters, but it is just enough to know that the rating is not good. At the same time, while Congressional Democrats receive a 31% job approval rating in those states, the Congressional Republicans stand at only 28%.

Tuesday's results will depend to a great degree on turnout. Is the vaunted Democratic turnout machine lubed and operating? We will see. By the same token, expectations will play a big role in either getting voters out or keeping them home: nationwide voters believe by a margin of 42% to 30% that the GOP will end up winning control of the Senate. In the battleground, the margin of expectations for the GOP is 47% to only 26% who expect the Democrats to win.