In a potentially huge field of candidates vying for the Republican nomination for President in 2016, the winner today is Other/Not Sure with 19%. In a new poll of 231 likely Republican primary voters nationwide by Zogby Analytics, 2012 GOP nominee Romney leads the pack with 14%, followed by former Florida Governor Jeb Bush (12%), Kentucky Senator Rand Paul (10%), New Jersey Governor Chris Christie (8%), former Arkansas Governor and now Fox News Host Mike Huckabee (7%), Florida Senator Marco Rubio (7%), Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker (5%), Rep. and former Vice Presidential nominee Paul Ryan (4%), Texas Governor Rick Perry (4%), Louisiana Governor Bobby Jindahl (3%), Texas Senator Ted Cruz (3%), South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley (2%), former Pennsylvania Senator Rick Santorum (1%), and both Ohio Senator Rob Portman and New Mexico Governor Susana Martinez tied at .3%.

The new Zogby Poll has a margin of sampling error of +/-6.6 percentage points.

Historically, since 1960 - (with the exception of 1964), the GOP tends to nominate the Gold Watch Candidate, i.e. the fellow who has been around the park the longest and is next in line. At the same time, historically, since 1968, the party has nominated the most "moderate" candidate in the field - with the exception of 1980 when the Gold Watch Candidate Ronald Reagan won over several more moderate candidates who split among themselves. This poll shows that the top four candidates do not fall within the strictest definition of "conservative" as defined by both the social and Christian conservative wings of the party. These more moderate split 44% of the total.

No one candidate emerges out of the pack by holding a significant lead among key GOP subgroups. Among self-identified Republicans, Romney leads Bush 16% to 13%, with Christie at 9%, Paul 8%, and Rubio and Ryan with 7% each. Among conservatives, Bush leads with 15% to Romney's 14%, Christie's, Rubio's, and Paul's 8%, Huckabee's 7%, and Walker's 6%.

It is very early. Unlike the Democrats, the GOP has no clear frontrunner. Arguably, Romney is the heir apparent but he should be doing better than 14%. Bush is quite literally the heir and that in itself is perhaps more of a problem than an advantage. Rand Paul has his own constituency and is a player, no doubt. But can he win in Iowa and New Hampshire? Huckabee can win in Iowa, but can he win anywhere else? Christie has the most interesting persona but can Trenton-Hoboken/Jersey City play in Cedar Rapids? Rudy Giuliani can teach Rubio a vital lesson - you gotta win somewhere before Florida. Walker won convincingly in 2014 but is he ready for a fourth campaign since 2010?

There are lots of questions but the biggest one for the GOP is this: can anyone stop the Democratic nominee?

Today, in the Zogby Poll, Hillary Clinton leads all of the Republican top tier candidates handsomely - 49%-34% against Bush; 51%-33% against Paul; 48%-33% against Christie; and 50% to 35% against Romney. Of course, it is early. We are only taking a temperature before any fever hits. But if the election were held today the next President is a "she".