Let's be serious, folks. Donald Trump's rise in the polls is as predictable as his dramatic fall will be. The Donald knows how to capture media attention. After all, he has been doing it for decades now. He has teased about running in the past and received too much coverage for that. Now he is a declared candidate and he dominates attention for himself, something he craves and masters, by simply being outrageous. He is Kim Kardahsian's ass, Paris Hilton's sex tape, and Caitlin Jenner's transformation - all rolled into one and now dominating media attention. In short order, Donald Trump's candidacy will be Sarah Palin's plea for attention and Kate Gosselin's whatever.

But we are talking about the Presidency of the United States and now, today, the inevitable merging of this iconic institution with celebrity culture. Enter The Donald. He has "surged" and "rocketed" - both Washington Post terms - into second place in the battle for the Republican nomination. Then, as of now, into first place. Shit happens.

Some pundits say he is tapping into something. There is a rage against the machine and Donald Trump represents a genuine phenomenon. But let me be emphatic here: there is nothing genuine about him or about this. Allow me to explain. First, there is a real anger out there among voters. There was George Wallace, Pat Buchanan and Ross Perot, then the Tea Party. This is a bona fide strain in American history. It is called xenophobia and fear of the modern. It is the angry white man in a nation that is becoming more non-white, less heterosexual, and less reliant on either organized religion or traditional notions of patriotism. The demographics alone show how much the America of "the old white man" is shrinking. And today, in this worldview, is Armegeddon , the worst case scenario - a President who is a man of color, with a Muslim name, insufficient proof of his nativity, and in possession of a worldview that recognizes the limits of U.S. power in the world and a willingness to lead from behind.

Enter Donald Trump. Yes, indeed, Mr. Trump has struck a responsive chord among some. But let's not get carried away with it. When the Washington Post reported almost two weeks ago that Mr. Trump had both "surged" and "rocketed" into second place in the GOP race, it really meant that his polling numbers had moved from 6%-8% to 10%-12%. And now a couple of polls show him leading the GOP pack with 17%-18%.

Several obvious points explain this. First, he has sucked all the oxygen out of the room. Mr. Trump likes to produce good copy and that is what has done. He has offended a large and growing constituency, our largest next door neighbor, and the sensibilities of many stripes of Americans - including some very high profile corporations and celebrities who also know how to grab public attention. He has made a career out of being outrageous and he is only doing what does best.

Second, this is the summer. Other candidates are just getting started and (for them, at least) this is not the time to be making mistakes and saying the wrong things. Rather, now is the time for the smaller events, the local news coverage, the slow plodding visits and calls to raise money.

Third, there is in fact a constituency out there that is alienated and angry. One that is looking for tough talk now, a reassertion of American greatness in the world, an expression of outward resentment - what the great historian Richard Hofstadter once called the "paranoid style in American politics". Trump has captured and captivated it for the moment. But this is how you get to 17% or 18% (perhaps even 20%) in the polls. That does not win an election even with so many candidates in the race. When well over half of GOP voters say they disapprove of Mr. Trump and will never vote for him, how does he grow? I suppose he can attack gays. There are also Muslims and kids with disabilities. But a lot of that would be duplicative. After all, if you hate Latinos, odds are you already fear sharia law, gay couples, and tax money spent on special education.

Besides, does anyone really think Mr. Trump can sustain this outrageous behavior for another year and a half? I for one don't think we will be talking about him in the fall of 2015. I am remembering Michele Bachman, Herman Cain, and Newt Gingrich. There are even more candidates this time around who can be the GOP "Flavor of the Month". This summer, the circus marquis welcomes you to see and hear the narcissistic bloviator who says the kinds of things you won't hear anywhere else. But look closely and the same sign will have a banner reading, "Featuring Next Month…"