Anyone who can remember way back in time—let’s say 2011—will remember the parade of Republican Presidential frontrunners. In order, there was Rick Perry, Michelle Bachmann, Herman Cain, Ron Paul, Newt Gingrich and finally (at the right moment, the end), Rick Santorum. Let’s also recall the endless stories about the doomed candidacy of Mitt Romney. Voters could not relate to him, didn’t like him, he was not a “real conservative,” he flipped and flopped on too many issues, could not be trusted, was not like just us folks, and so on. Like the doomed candidacy of John McCain in 2007 and 2008, he went on to win the nomination. Why? Because the primary and caucus voters actually voted for him. How refreshing: Voters actually paying attention, showing up, and choosing a nominee.

Despite all the (in the words of Jeb Bush) “blah, blah, blah,” GOP voters typically choose the most moderate candidate or the one who deserves the gold watch if, for no other reason, he has hung around the longest.

Yes, let me officially declare what I have known and written for months: the era of Donald Trump is over. He may bounce back with something new up his sleeve—but gimmickry and offensive trash talk can only get you so far. And they’re no different now than before. There is no substance, no gravitas, no plan, no vision—just Trump. It is why his candidacy was never sustainable for the long run.

And, quite frankly, just as I said a while back, Trump is on the downward slope not because of something he said but because he is no longer getting the coverage he once was assured. How dare Hillary Clinton suck up all his media time because she won a debate, watched one of her major challenger not enter the race, and endured Congressional hearings—then watched her poll numbers go up.

Like a black bear in the woods, if you ignore it, it will just go away. I think we are seeing just that with the Trump phenomenon.

Enter the new frontrunner, Dr. Ben Carson. Prayer has given rise to this Prophet. I can say with all honesty I have never seen a frontrunner so ill-prepared to be President. He is great in his field, to be sure, but he has never done anything even remotely connected with governance or policymaking. His pronouncements are mainly vague, he knows pathetically little about issues, and aside from his gentle demeanor, he offers very little. What he does offer is some old-fashioned hate. Unlike Lindsey Graham and George Pataki who are railing against “radical Islam,” Dr. Carson takes on Islam. Can a President Carson really sit down with King Salman of Saudi Arabia and King Abdullah of Jordan? (Your Royal Majesties, he was only trying to get elected when he said no Muslim should ever be President?)

It is not easy being the GOP frontrunner. And Dr. Carson may be here, but he will be gone tomorrow.

I have been polling a very long time. But just going back to 2003, I recall how Howard Dean’s lead among Democrats held up for the last six months of that year and kept growing. I also remember the question I would ask Democrats nationally and in Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina: “Do you prefer a nominee who stands up to and refuses to compromise on his principles or someone who can beat George W. Bush?” From June through December of that year, by a factor of two to one, Democrats said they wanted the principled fighter. That was Dean and his lead kept growing. As we started polling Iowa just after New Year’s Day, we found a completely different sentiment. Now voters were saying, by the same margin, they wanted someone who could defeat Bush. I then saw Dean’s number go down a point every day (along with Dick Gephardt) while John Kerry’s went up about a point each day.

So, to the voters, let’s sit back and watch how things develop. You might see Dr. Carson for a little while—before Ted Cruz gets his turn. Then the GOP voters will start to consider a real nominee.