Full disclosure first: I am a pollster and a pundit. The former role is collecting and analyzing data mainly from Zogby Polls. The latter is my role as an older guy who has taught American history and political science for 24 years and has been around a very long time. Sometimes the two roles see things differently.

With that said, a new Zogby Analytics Poll, conducted among 344 likely Republican primary and caucus voters nationwide, shows developer Donald Trump leading his nearest opponent, neurologist Dr. Ben Carson by 13 points - 30% to 17% -- with Florida Senator Marco Rubio in third place at 10%, closely followed by Texas Senator Ted Cruz with 8%, and former Florida Governor Jeb Bush with 7%. Kentucky Senator Rand Paul shows up with 4% and all other candidates are 2% or below.

The poll has a margin of sampling error of +/- 5.4 percentage points.

Mr. Trump receives strong support among men (29%), women (32%), Republicans (30%) and independents (34%).

Dr. Carson does better among women (20%) than men (15%), and independents (19%) than Republicans (17%).

Mr. Rubio who has climbed a few points since his performance in the most recent GOP debate is the only other candidate in double digits and does 10%-11% among most sub-group. And Mr. Cruz hits double digits, also due to a strong debate, among men (10%) and independents (11%), but comes a little short among women (5%) and Republicans (7%).

Mr. Bush at least shows up but appears to need more support among women (5%) and independents (3%).

Dr. Carson has moved up 4 points since last month's Zogby Poll. Rubio is up 3 points. And Criz is up 3 points. These are not huge gains and should not be treated as such. There are less than 90 days to go before real voters actually cast a ballot.

If your state's Republican Primary or caucus were held
today and the candidates were...for whom would you vote?
  Valid Percent
Jeb Bush
Carly Fiorina
Ted Cruz
Marco Rubio
John Kasich
Rand Paul
Ben Carson
George Pataki
Chris Christie
Donald Trump
Jim Gilmore
Lindsey Graham
Rick Santorum
Mike Huckabee
Bobby Jindal
Someone else
Not Sure

Zogby Analytics Online Survey of Likely Republican Primary Voters
10/30/15 to 10/31/15 MOE +/- 5.4 percentage points