A new Zogby Analytics online survey of 875 likely voters, conducted between 6/28/16 - 6/29/16 with a margin of error of +/- 3.4 percentage points, shows Hillary Clinton with a two point lead, 39%-37%, over Donald Trump in the latest Zogby Analytics national survey. Almost one in five (17%) are not sure, while Gary Johnson receives 5% and Jill Stein receives 3%. Trump has been able to close the gap in key groups such as the all important Independent and middle class likely voters, which is explained in further detail below.

208. If the election for President were being held today and the Democratic nominee for President is Hillary Clinton and the Republican nominee for President is Donald Trump; the Libertarian nominee is Gary Johnson and the Green party nominee is Jill Stein for whom would you vote?

Hillary Clinton 39%
Donald Trump 37%
Gary Johnson 5%
Jill Stein 3%
Not sure 17%

     Hillary Clinton beats Donald Trump among her usual Democratic core groups such 18-29 year olds (43-21%), 30-49 year olds (40-36%), women (39-33%), union members (45-29%), Hispanics (56-12%), African Americans (74-7%), annual income of less than $25k (48-27%), annual income of $25-35k (50-26%), annual income of $75k-100k (42-31%) and voters who earn more than $150k annually (45-44%).

     She also wins big among those likely voters who are struggling economically-temporarily laid-off and looking for work (46-26%) and those who are temporarily laid-off and not looking for work (66-25%). Geographically, Hillary Clinton also wins among likely voters in the East (45-32%) and West regions (48-27%) and among those who live in large cities (48-25), the Suburbs (42-39%) and single voters (49-24%).

     Donald Trump beats Hillary among likely voters in the Central Great Lakes region (45-31%), while Trump and Clinton are tied at 38% among likely voters in the South region. Trump has tightened the race among men since our last poll; he leads by a sliver, 40-39%. He also beats Hillary Clinton among likely voters age 65+ (47-36%) and is tied with Clinton among likely voters age 50-64 at 40%.

     Since our last poll, Trump has flipped the table among Independents; he now leads Hillary 36-23%, while almost three in ten (27%) are not sure. He also wins among likely voters who identify as middle class (40-38%), likely voters who live in small cities (38-35%) and rural areas (49-27%), Catholics (49-37%), Protestants (41-37%), likely voters who earn $35k-50k annually (36-35%) and those likely voters who earn $100k-150k annually (51-28%).