If the election for President were being held today and the Democratic nominee for President is Hillary Clinton and the Republican nominee for President is Donald Trump; the Libertarian nominee is Gary Johnson and the Green party nominee is Jill Stein for whom would you vote?
Hillary Clinton 38%
Donald Trump 36%
Gary Johnson 8%
Jill Stein 5%
Not sure 13%
*Percentages may not equal 100% due to rounding.
The Takeaways: In a new Zogby Analytics nationwide online poll conducted August 12-13, +/-2.8% MOE, we asked 1,277 likely voters who they would vote for if the election for President were being held today. Since our Last poll in early July, Clinton still maintains a small 2% lead over Trump. It seems the convention bumps are behind us and we are back to a close race!
Donald Trump continues to lead among his core groups, which are men, he leads Clinton 41% to 35%. He also leads Clinton among older likely voters such as 50-64 year olds (41%-36%), and those 65+ (44%-36%).
Trump's numbers have dipped a little among middle income voters, Hillary Clinton now leads among those voters who earn $35k-50k (38%-37%), $50k-75K (37%-34%) and $75-100k (45-35%). Clinton also leads big among her core base-Millennials 18-29 years old (36%-26%), 18-24 year olds (59%-22%), Hispanics (51%-18%) and African Americans (81%-8%), which is not a big surprise. She has also won back the support of women voters, which Trump had narrowed the gap in our last poll; Clinton is winning among women 42% to 32%.
Trump has kept the race close by winning Independents. He is winning Independents 32% to 26% and has also closed the gap among older Millennials. Trump is tied with Clinton at 30% among 25-34 year old voters. Another interesting development is over the years we have tracked voting habits among NASCAR fans and Weekly WalMart shoppers. Ten years ago these groups tended to slant conservative and Republican. That trend has been reversed during the Obama Presidency, and these consumers tend to be more liberal and supporters of Democrats today. Trump has reversed this trend. Both NASCAR fans and WalMart shoppers favor Trump over Clinton. Donald Trump is winning NASCAR fans (44% to 36%) and weekly WalMart shoppers 41% to 36%.