Monday, December 10th, 2018

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The Zogby Poll®: Since January Democrats are losing support in the congressional generic; Democrats lose big among Millennials and African Americans; Voters remain steady in their support for Republicans

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Trump may be the key to Republicans maintaing control of both houses in the 2018 mid-terms

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A new nationwide Zogby poll® of 881 likely voters in the U.S., conducted 5/10/18 -5/12/18 with a margin of error of +/-3.3%, shows likely voters still favor democrats compared to republicans in the 2018 mid-terms, but numbers are slipping slightly for democrats, as more voters are undecided.

Gender

Both men (42%) and women (38%) are more likely to favor democrats than republicans (37% and 29%, respectively) in the 2018 mid-term congressional elections. Support for republicans among women has decreased from 33% to 29% since January. Support for republicans among men remained the same since January.

Age

In January slight majorities (51% and 52%, respectively) of likely voters aged 18-29 and 30-49 were more likely to vote for democrats. These numbers have decreased significantly in May to 37% and 42%, respectively. Among Millennial voters aged 18-29, support for republicans gained 9%. On the flipside, among voters aged 50+, democrats and republicans were statistically tied. Republicans lost a lead among voters aged 50+ since our January poll.

Income

Almost every income group said they will support democrats in the 2018 mid-term congressional elections, with the exception to likely voters who earn $150k+ annually. Among this income group, 44% said they will support republicans while 38% will support democrats. Support for democrats in the 2018 mid-terms was strongest among voters earning <$25k annually; 44% of these voters said they will support democrats, while 21% will support republicans in the 2018 mid-terms.

Region

Support for democrats was strongest in the east (48%-22% in favor of democrats), while support for republicans was strongest in the south (41% to 35% in favor of republicans). The central great lakes region was split; 38% said they will support democrats, while 35% said they will support republicans in the 2018 mid-terms. Likely voters in the west preferred democrats (41%) to republicans (28%).

Race

Not surprisingly, more white voters (38%) said they will support republicans compared to a third (34%) who will vote for democrats. Among Hispanics, 51% said they will vote for democrats in the 2018 mid-terms and a quarter (26%) said they will vote for republicans. African Americans overwhelmingly said they will vote for democrats compared to republicans 65% to 6%--support for democrats among African Americans is down 20% since January.

Special demographics

Two important groups to look at are NASCAR fans and Walmart shoppers. Both of these groups have moved to the left over the last decade, but were instrumental in electing President Trump in 2016. Right now both favor republicans slightly in the 2018 mid-term congressional elections. NASCAR fans said they prefer republicans (41%) to democrats (36%) and both are tied at 40% among Walmart shoppers. In January, both groups favored democrats.

As of this writing, according to the numbers, the 2018 mid-terms favor democrats. But as we know, this is an imperfect way to judge the race due to district specific issues and how congressional districts are drawn.

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As we can see from the numbers above, likely voters prefer President Trump to democratic leaders when it comes to "growing the economy" and "keeping America safe".  What's important here is the numbers among the key groups (Millennials, women and independents) who will be a factor in the 2018 mid-term elections. When it comes to the economy, independents favor Trump (32%-22%) rather than democratic leaders and Trump ties democratic leaders with women (both 34%) and Millennials (both 36%). When it comes to "keeping America safe", independents (32% to 29%) favor Trump, and the President is keeping things close to respectable with Millennials aged 18-24 (44% to 32% in favor of democratic leaders) and women (41% to 34% in favor democratic leaders). Could Trump prove to be the difference maker for republicans in 2018? The data does point in this direction but the election is still six months out. Now republican congressional candidates must decide if they want President Trump to blaze the campaign trail for them. That could prove to be wise at the moment.

Please click here to view the methodology statement.

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