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The Zogby Poll®: Joe Biden's lead widens over Bernie Sanders in potential Dem Primary! Oprah polling well with Millennials, women and independents; McAuliffe finishes last for second time since Sept; Warren, Harris and Booker are currently non-factor

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A new nationwide Zogby poll® of 533 likely democratic primary and caucus voters in the U.S., conducted 5/10/18 -5/12/18, with a margin of error of +/-4.2%, shows likely democratic primary voters prefer Joe Biden (26%) over Bernie Sanders (18%) and Oprah (14%) in a potential 2020 democratic primary. Nearly one in five (22%) likely voters were not sure who they would vote for. Other names that stood out were Massachusetts Senator Elizabeth Warren (8%), California Senator Kamala Harris (4%) and New Jersey Senator Cory Booker (3%). Bottoming out the rest of the field was New York governor Andrew Cuomo (2%), Senators Kirsten Gillibrand -NY and Sherrod Brown-OH (both at 1%), former governor Deval Patrick (1%), and former Attorney General Eric Holder (1%). Former Virginia Governor, Terry McAuliffe, finished with 0%. This is the second time McAuliffe finished last; he also finished last with 1% in our September 2017 poll.

Since our polls in September and October, Joe Biden has jumped past Bernie Sanders in a potential 2020 democratic primary showdown. Biden is now consolidating his lead among his main rivals Bernie Sanders and Oprah. How is Biden doing it? He is winning with voters aged 30+, who most likely remember "Scranton Joe" as a senator and vice president. Biden is particularly strong with voters aged 50+; he receives 24% among likely voters aged 30-49; 32% among likely voters aged 50-64, and 40% among likely voters aged 65+. In each of these age cohorts, Biden bests Sanders, except for voters aged 18-29, where Sanders wins by an almost 2 to 1 margin; he leads Biden 23% to 10%. Oprah does the best out of all candidates among Millennials aged 18-29 (25%).

Things are much closer among younger Millennials aged 18-24 (Sanders leads Biden 20% to 16%). Sanders' success continues among independents (Sanders leads Biden 24% to 17%) but Biden does much better among minorities such as Hispanics (Biden Leads Sanders 22% to 17%) and African Americans (Biden Leads Sanders 31% to 8%). This is an area Sanders did not do so great in the 2016 primaries. Both candidates are tied (23%) among liberals. Joe Biden also beats out Sanders among men (30% to 16%) and women (22% to 19%). Oprah also does well with women (17%), African Americans (24%), independents (17%) and Hispanics (20%). No other potential democratic primary challenger is a factor in these demographics, or for that matter, any other category.

 

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