Wednesday, November 14th, 2018

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The Zogby Poll®: Biden and Sanders are neck and neck for 2020! Oprah ahead of Warren, Harris and Booker!

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Zogby Analytics surveyed 495 likely democratic primary voters nationwide. The poll was conducted online 6/4/18 -6/6/18, and has a MOE +/-4.4 percentage points.

We posed the following question to likely democratic primary voters: If your state's Democratic Primary or caucus for President were held today, for whom would you vote?

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Most (29%) likely democratic primary voters are still not sure who they would vote for in 2020 among a list of unofficial candidates. Joe Biden (21%) and Bernie Sanders (19%) are leading the group, followed by Oprah Winfrey (10%) and Elizabeth Warren (6%). Sanders has cut into Biden's lead since our last poll in May, and only trails Biden by two percentage points, 21% to 19%, which is within the margin of error for this sample. New York Governor, Andrew Cuomo (4%), gained some ground by closing in on the lower tier of potential candidates, mainly Senators Kamala Harris (CA-5%) and Cory Booker (NJ-4%).

Who emerges as the nominee will come down to demographics, and who can rally the democratic base, which should be fired-up in 2020 to oust President Trump.

Bernie Sanders continues to dominate among Millennials and Generation Z voters (Sanders beats Biden 26% to 5%). Sanders, especially wins among voters aged 18-24 (Sanders beats Biden 35% to 5%). Among younger voters age 18-29 and 18-24, Oprah comes in second (22% and 15%, respectively) followed by Elizabeth Warren (4% and 6%, respectively) and Harris (7% and 5%, respectively). Biden is strongest among voters age 30+.

Among registered democrats, Biden leads Sanders 26% to 21%. Oprah (11%) is in third and 18% still remain unsure. No other candidate receives double digits; Elizabeth Warren comes closest with 7%.

Among registered Independents, Sanders beats Biden (17% to 13%), again with Oprah finishing in third (11%). Joe Biden leads Sanders narrowly among liberals (23% to 21%), moderates (24% to 20%), college degree (22% to 18%), and no college degree voters (20% to 19%). When it comes to ethnicity, Biden does better than Sanders among Hispanics (Biden leads 29% to 23%) and African Americans (Biden leads 20% to 17%). Biden (23%) also wins among union voters, beating out Sanders (15%) and Oprah (10%).

Bernie Sanders leads in large cities (Sanders leads Biden 23% to 15%), while Biden leads the pack among small city voters (Biden leads Sanders 21% to 17%), and those living in suburban (Biden leads Sanders 26% to 17%) and rural areas (Biden leads Sanders 24% to 16%). Of the more unique demographics we track, Biden is winning among NASCAR fans (Biden leads Sanders 27% to 16%), weekly Walmart shoppers (Biden leads Sanders 25% to 20%), creative class voters-STEM sector (Biden leads Sanders 19% to 16%), and frequent Amazon shoppers (Biden leads Sanders 24% to 20%). Oprah finishes in third among each sub-group, with exception to creative class voters where she ties Sanders for second. Also, most voters were not sure who they would vote for among each of the unique demographics.

The Takeaways

  • With about two years until the democratic nominee is decided, it's looking like a dog fight between the two establishment candidates, Bernie Sanders and Joe Biden. As of right now, both still have to entice a third of the democratic electorate, who remain undecided.
  • Is there still enough time for someone new to emerge. Could that be Kamala Harris or Cory Booker? Maybe it's Michael Bloomberg.
  • At this point a heated 2020 democratic primary might help an incumbent President Trump. If he is able to avoid a recession he will be tough to beat as an incumbent, even against heavy weights like Joe Biden and Bernie Sanders. Both have polled very well against Trump, but based on the 2016 results, Trump could beat both, no matter what the polls say.
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