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The Zogby Poll®: Biden has big leads in key battleground states; Sanders in distant second, while Warren makes gains in OH, WI, SC, and AZ

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Zogby Analytics® conducted online surveys of likely Democratic primary voters in seven battleground states - Arizona, Florida, Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania, South Carolina, and Wisconsin. The surveys were conducted 5/23/19-5/29/19. Based on a confidence interval of 95%, the margin of error for each state is as follows:

State Completes MOE
Arizona 197 +/- 7.0 percentage points
Florida 228 +/- 6.5 percentage points
Michigan 268 +/- 6.0 percentage points
Ohio 222 +/- 6.6 percentage points
Pennsylvania 246 +/- 6.3 percentage points
South Carolina 183 +/- 7.2 percentage points
Wisconsin 238 +/- 6.4 percentage points

 

Former Vice President Joe Biden holds a commanding lead over his closest Democratic primary rivals. We tested 15 names for the 2020 Democratic primary in seven states. In order to display the data in a readable format, we took the top five candidates from each of the seven states we polled. Every other declared candidate not shown (Beto O'Rourke, Cory Booker, Amy Klobuchar, John Hickenlooper, Andrew Yang, Kirsten Gillibrand, Julian Castro, Tulsi Gabbard, Jay Inslee, John Delaney, and "someone else") scored 4% or less among likely voters in seven states.

Joe Biden's closest competitors were: Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders, Massachusetts Senator Elizabeth Warren, California Senator Kamala Harris, and South Bend Mayor, Pete Buttigieg. Bernie Sanders was the only candidate, other than Biden, to get at least 10% in all seven states surveyed. Biden's lead is substantial-although the samples have higher margins of error-he still has commanding leads outside the margin of error, and is winning by at least a two to one margin in five states (AZ-Biden leads Sanders 35% to 16%; FL-Biden leads Sanders 34% to 18%; PA-Biden leads Sanders 46% to 15%; SC- Biden leads Sanders 36% to 13%; WI- Biden leads Sanders 28% to 13%).

What does this all mean right now? It means Joe Biden is the clear frontrunner for the Democratic nomination, and is winning big in very important states that Democrats need to flip blue in 2020. Biden is not in the clear yet; he will still have to stave off attacks from his own party about his past voting record and positions on policy issues i.e. "Medicare for all," "universal basic income," and the "Green New Deal."

Joe Biden is making his big pitch to voters in Iowa and around the country this week, and laying the groundwork for his campaign's main message to voters, while his closest rival, Bernie Sanders, is pitching "socialism" as the right path for the country. Biden is cruising toward the nomination right now and is in the driver's seat; his other rivals: Bernie Sanders, Elizabeth Warren, Kamala Harris, and Pete Buttigieg are in voters' rear view mirror. Could this change, anything is possible, but someone is going to need to step on the gas real soon.

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