Washington State is split on their support for three Democratic rivals: Joe Biden, Bernie Sanders, and Elizabeth Warren. Warren is currently starting to make a move, especially after two decent debates and good media coverage. She is currently sneaking up on Bernie Sanders by trying to stake her position as the true “liberal choice.”
As we have seen in previous national polling, Bernie Sanders is stronger with the under 50 voter and Biden has stronger support with voters over 50. They are also close among women and Hispanics.
Kamala Harris is in fourth place and does well with upper income voters but still lags with women and younger voters.
Even in a blue state, more than 40% of all voters say they support Trump on certain issues in private and tell people the opposite. This view is especially prevalent among some important swing voters: Millennials/Generation Z, Independents and stay at home parents/guardians.
It’s the economy stupid! Voters say the economy and jobs will decide who they vote for in 2020, followed closely by truth/truthfulness. Both will impact Trump, but right now it’s open for debate if it will be negative or positive impact. Other popular issues such as racism, gun control, The Green New Deal, and income equality were not as important to voters in 2020. Medicare for all (10% support) is moving up the list!
For whom would you vote if the Democratic Primary or Caucus for President was held today and the candidates were...
Nineteen percent of Democratic likely voters in the state of Washington would vote for the former vice president Joe Biden, who is closely followed by Senator Bernie Sanders (VT-I) at 18% and the undecided (16%). Senator Elizabeth Warren (MA-D) also has a strong showing with 14% of the vote. After taking on Joe Biden in the first debates and receiving a lot of media attention, Senator Kamala Harris (CA-D), Governor of Washington State, Jay Inslee, and Mayor of South Bend Indiana, Pete Buttigieg, round the next list of contenders, all receiving between 5%-9%. The rest of the long list of non-contenders receives 1%-2% of support of Washington Democratic primary voters.
Among the main sub-groups, such as age, race, income, education, and gender, there are distinct lines drawn for support of the top two front-runners, Bernie Sanders and Joe Biden. Biden performs considerably better with men (24%) vs. women (16%) while Sanders performs equally (18% vs. 17%).
As we have observed in nationwide and other battle ground polling done by Zogby Analytics the last two years, Sanders does very well with voters under the age of 50, while Biden does best with voters over the age of 50. Both Biden and Sanders are first and second with voters under the age of 50, while Warren is in third place by at least a two to one margin over the rest of the Democratic primary field. With voters over the age of 50, Warren and Harris are tied with 13%-14% support each. Voters over the age of 65 were more likely to support former vice president Joe Biden (28%), who beats Kamala Harris and Elizabeth Warren two to one.
Not surprisingly, younger Millennials ages 18-29, were most likely to support no one, as they were the most unsure about their support. The same trend is also true of Generation Z voters, aged 18-24, where Sanders wins two to one and the next closest candidate, Joe Biden is at 12%.
When it came to the support of American women, Bernie Sanders (VT-I), narrowly beats Biden, followed by Elizabeth Warren in third place with 13%, and Kamala Harris (9%). Biden (24%) wins among Democratic male voters, with the usual candidates next in line—Sanders (17%), Warren (13%), and Harris (10%).
In reference to the income of the Democratic likely voters, those whose household income was less than $75K, narrowly supported Sanders over Biden (24% over 21%), while Democrats whose household income was between $75K-$249K, narrowly support Joe Biden over Bernie Sanders (17% over 11%). Support by these income groups for Warren and Harris follow, swapping third and fourth place respectively. The most committed income group, in their support of a particular candidate, are the voting group whose annual household income was $149k-$249k; a third supported Senator Kamala Harris.
Among Hispanics, Sanders bests Biden, 21% to 17%. Bernie Sanders also does best with Democrats without college degrees, beating Joe Biden 24% to 20%, and voters with college degrees favor Joe Biden, with 19%, while Elizabeth Warren is next with 17% support and Sanders and Harris receive 12%.
Do you agree or disagree with the following statement: Even though I tell people I do not approve of Donald Trump, I personally agree with him on certain issues.
When we asked voters if they tell people they do not approve of President Trump, but do personally agree with him on certain issues, a majority said they at least somewhat disagreed, while 43% agreed (17% strongly agreed, 26% somewhat agreed).
This question shows how some voters are afraid to admit they agree with the president, even if they personally approve of him. The difference could represent “silent” support for the president that is hard to identify with just horserace or issue polling questions.
Because Trump is a firebrand and a very divisive figure, some voters, especially stay at home parents, Millennials, Generation Z voters and Independent voters are more likely to agree with the above statement that they are likely to tell people they do not agree with Trump, while silently supporting the president on certain issues. Women were more likely to disagree they tell people they do not approve of Trump, while supporting him in private. When it came to age, Millennials age 18-29 (48% agree/52% disagree) were more likely to agree they silently support Trump than older voters—aged 50-64 (39% agree/61% disagree).
Independents (47% strongly and somewhat agree combined) were also more prone to feeling they had to hide their support of Trump on certain issues more than Democrats (80% strongly and somewhat disagree combined). Republicans were the most likely to agree about hiding their support of Trump on certain issues (73% strongly and somewhat disagree combined).
Surprisingly, Hispanics were more likely to agree (56% strongly and somewhat agree combined) they needed to hide their views while white voters were more in line with the overall numbers (43% agree/57% disagree). Half of stay at home parents were more likely to at least somewhat likely agree that they tell people they disapprove of Trump and in private support the president.
Since this group tends to skew female and suburban, there does appear to be a contingency of suburban women who might support the president in private, which could possibly bolster his chance against the Democratic nominee in 2020. There was also a difference in full-time employed workers in the private sector (48% at least somewhat agree/52% at least somewhat disagree) compared with workers who are not currently employed (34% at least somewhat agree/66% at least somewhat disagree).
Voters whose household income was between $20K and $35K were likely to at least somewhat disagree (59%), while 41% at least somewhat agreed with Trump in private, while those whose household income was between $150K and $249K were more likely to at least somewhat agree with Trump; among the same income group, 48% at least somewhat disagreed with the idea of telling people they don’t approve of Trump, while supporting him in private.
When you are deciding for whom you are going to vote for President of the United States in 2020, what issue influences your decision the most? (Choose only one)
|Medicare for all||10%|
|Ensuring private health care||5%|
|The Green New Deal||2%|
For most sub-groups, the top four issues deciding whom there going to vote for in 2020 are: the economy/jobs—19%, trust/truthfulness—16%, immigration reform—11%, and Medicare for all—10%. while economy/jobs and trust/truthfulness were the top two. The least important issues to voters when they cast their ballots in 2020 were racism (2%), temperament (2%), The Green New Deal (2%) and gun violence (3%).
Trust/truthfulness was most important among stay at home parents and caregivers (27%). This was a group who silently agreed with the President more than most groups. The economy/jobs were most important to Generation Z voters and Independents, both 21%.
One in five women chose trust/truthfulness as their most important issue in 2020, followed closely with economy/jobs (17%). The same number of men said economy/jobs was the most important issue in deciding their vote for president in 2020, while three separate issues—Medicare for all (11%), immigration reform (12%) and trust/truthfulness (12%) were the next most important for men in 2020.
Older voters aged 65+ were most likely to be concerned with immigration reform (19%) while the same number of younger Millennials (aged 18-29) were most concerned with the economy/jobs. Millennials were also most likely to say that gun violence (10%) was the most important issue in 2020 – a number almost three times that of the average Washingtonian.
Among Asians, economy/jobs (32%) and Medicare for all (15%) were the top two issues while immigration reform was more important by a two to one margin among Hispanics (20%) compared to white and Asian voters (both 10%).
Zogby Analytics Poll Methodology
Washington Likely Voters
7/22/19 – 8/1/19
Zogby Analytics conducted an online survey of 1265 likely voters in Washington.
Using internal and trusted interactive partner resources, thousands of adults were randomly invited to participate in this interactive survey. Each invitation is password coded and secure so that one respondent can only access the survey one time.
Using information based on census data, voter registration figures, CIA fact books and exit polls, we use complex weighting techniques to best represent the demographics of the population being surveyed. Weighted variables may include age, race, gender, region, party, education, and religion.
Based on a confidence interval of 95%, the margin of error for 1265 is +/- 2.8 percentage points. This means that all other things being equal, the identical survey repeated will have results within the margin of error 95 times out of 100.
Subsets of the data have a larger margin of error than the whole data set. As a rule we do not rely on the validity of very small subsets of the data especially sets smaller than 50-75 respondents. At that subset we can make estimations based on the data, but in these cases the data is more qualitative than quantitative.
Additional factors can create error, such as question wording and question order.
About Zogby Analytics:
Zogby Analytics is respected nationally and internationally for its opinion research capabilities. Since 1984, Zogby has empowered clients with powerful information and knowledge critical for making informed strategic decisions.
The firm conducts multi-phased opinion research engagements for banking and financial services institutions, insurance companies, hospitals and medical centers, retailers and developers, religious institutions, cultural organizations, colleges and universities, IT companies and Federal agencies. Zogby’s dedication and commitment to excellence and accuracy are reflected in its state-of-the-art opinion research capabilities and objective analysis and consultation.
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