The reason President Trump is winning, barely, in a hypothetical match-up with the former vice president, Joe Biden, is that, in addition to winning with his normal base of men (Trump leads 54% to 39%), white voters (Trump leads 53% to 40%), union voters (Trump leads 62% to 32%), and southern voters (Trump leads 50% to 43%), Trump has also tightened the race with Independents (Biden leads 42% to 36%), suburban voters (Biden leads 49% to 43%), and Hispanics (Biden leads 47% to 43%). Trump is also beating Biden convincingly with two demographics he has recently made inroads with: large city voters (Trump leads 50% to 44%) and Generation X voters age 30-49 (Trump leads 49% to 41%).
Biden on the other hand is still winning with women voters (Biden leads 50% to 41%), Millennials age 18-29 (Biden leads 50% to 43%), and small city voters (Biden leads 48% to 42%). Joe Biden also appeals more to urban women (Biden leads 58% to 35%), suburban women (Biden leads 48% to 39%), African Americans (Biden leads 72% to 23%) and moderates (Biden leads 53% to 32%).
Biden does lead among important swing voters (Independents, Hispanics, and suburban women), but he will need to cut into the president's base, especially the consumer blocs: weekly Walmart shoppers (Trump leads 57% to 38%), weekly Amazon Shoppers (Trump leads 55% to 38%) and NASACAR fans (Trump leads 62% to 31%). These consumer blocs are important because since we have been tracking these groups, beginning in the early 2,000's, these voters have backed the winner of the last five presidential elections we have polled.
Donald Trump narrowly defeats Senator Bernie Sanders (VT-I) in the general election within the margin of error. Sanders appeals to younger Millennials aged 18-29 (Sanders leads 56% to 37%) and Hispanics (Sanders leads 50% to 38%), but Trump is winning and keeping it close where it matters. Turn out will be key to the Democrats but the Republicans can chip away at swing voters and groups that are "purple" or historically lean left; for instance, suburban voters (Sanders leads 45% to 43%) and suburban women (Sanders leads 45% to 39%), both of which fit the bill of swing voters. Sanders is winning, but not dominating, with Independents (Sanders leads 42% to 36%) and women voters (Sanders leads 49% to 40%), which are two groups he will need to depend on in order to defeat Trump in 2020. Trump has a majority support among urban men (Trump leads 55% to 37%), consumers such as Walmart shoppers (Trump leads 53% to 41%) and weekly Amazon shoppers (Trump leads 53% to 40%) and NASCAR fans (Trump leads 61% to 29%).
Sanders keeps things close with President Trump with Central/Great Lakes voters (Trump leads 44% to 43%), small city voters (Trump leads 45% to 44%), and large city voters (Both tied at 48%). Senator Sanders also does well with urban women (Sanders leads 58% to 35%) and Catholic women (Sanders leads 56% to 37%).
An important area to look at are the most vulnerable voters economically: lost a job (Trump leads 57% to 33%), afraid of losing a job (Trump leads 49% to 42%), at a job that pays less (Trump leads 51% to 39%) and gone without food for 24hrs (Trump leads 56% to 37%), which are all being won by Trump.
When President Trump and Senator Elizabeth Warren (MA-D) are matched-up against each other they are both tied at 45%. Of all the candidates, Warren is running the closest with President Trump at the moment. Warren does extremely well with younger voters under age 30, but voters over 30 favor Trump. Senator Warren beats Trump among Independents (Warren leads 41% to 35%), and does well with minority voters, such as, Hispanics (Warren Leads 53% to 35%) and African Americans (Warren Leads 65% to 16%). Elizabeth Warren also does well with voters in small cities (Warren Leads 46% to 42%) and the suburbs (Warren Leads 45% to 42%). Trump is winning with men (Trump leads 50% to 40%), while Warren leads among women (Warren Leads 49% to 41%).
President Trump does very well against Warren when it comes to NASCAR fans (Trump leads 59% to 32%), weekly Walmart shoppers (Trump leads 54% to 38%) and weekly Amazon shoppers (Trump leads 53% to 39%).
Trump leads with social networkers (Trump leads 50% to 42%), while Warren tightens things up among Catholics (Trump leads 47% to 45%) and Southern voters (Trump leads 47% to 44%). She is also running closer to Trump, than her rivals, among voters who are economically vulnerable: lost a job (Trump leads 50% to 44%), at a job that pays less (Warren leads 48% to 46%), afraid of losing a job (Trump leads 46% to 42%) and gone without food in 24 hrs (Trump leads 54% to 40%).
Donald Trump does the second best against Kamala Harris compared to all the other candidates he is matched-up against. He beats the Senator from California 47% to 41%, while 12% are not sure. The reason Trump does so well against Harris is that not only does he perform very well with his base but he also does well enough with groups who would normally lean Democratic.
Among his base, Trump dominated with Generation X voters (Trump leads 50% to 36%), union voters (Trump leads 60% to 28%), NASCAR fans (Trump leads 60% to 32%), Walmart shoppers (Trump leads 55% to 36%), weekly Amazon shoppers (Trump leads 52% to 39%), men (Trump leads 52% to 38%) and older voters age 65+ (Trump 52% to 41%).
Where Trump does his damage? He is virtually tied with Senator Harris among older Millennials age 25-34 (Trump leads 44% to 43%), women (Harris leads 44% to 43%), Independents (Harris 38% to 37%), suburban voters (Trump leads 46% to 45%), Hispanics (Harris leads 44% to 43%) and suburban women (Trump leads 45% to 44%). These are all groups that are considered "purple."
Right now Harris's problem is she does not do well with voters over 30: Trump is winning by 16 points with voters, age 30-49, against Harris. Conventional wisdom would say her biggest supporters would be women but she is virtually tied with Trump among women and suburban women. The president is also winning with voters in the West. A couple of bright spots: Harris is winning with moderates (Harris 44% to 36%) and winning narrowly with small city voters (Harris 44% to 42%).
Of all the match-ups, Trump wins the biggest against Mayor Pete Buttigieg of South Bend, Indiana. The president wins by double digits and wins big among his base: men (Trump leads 56% to 32%), consumer voters such as weekly Walmart shoppers (Trump leads 58% to 34%), creative class voters (Trump leads 58% to 31%), rural voters (Trump leads 50% to 33%), older voters age 65+ (Trump leads 52% to 40%), Catholic voters (Trump leads 58% to 31%), and Evangelical voters (Trump leads 72% to 20%).
Mayor Pete Buttigieg has many of the same issues exhibited by Senator Kamala Harris when matched-up against Trump. Buttigieg does well with younger Millennials age 18-29 (Buttigieg leads 45% to 41%) and Generation Z voters age 18-24 (Buttigieg leads 51% to 29%) but Trump makes the race close with women (Buttigieg leads 43% to 42%), and Independents (Trump leads 38% to 36%). Trump actually beats "Mayor Pete" among older Millennials age 25-34 (Trump leads 49% to 38%), Hispanic voters (Trump leads 45% to 36%), suburban voters (Trump leads 47% to 41%), and suburban women (Trump leads 45% to 43%).
It doesn't appear that Mayor Pete has cross-over appeal, yet. While Biden, Sanders, Harris and Warren did much better with moderates, Buttigieg struggled as he only beat Trump 43% to 38%. He also did not do great among LGBQT likely voters; Trump received 43% support, while Buttigieg received 45%. Trump's number among LGBQT) voters, against Buttigieg, was the highest among all the Democratic match-ups.
A strong majority (60%) think the United States is an exceptional country, while 28% think the U.S. is an average country and 9% think it's below-average. Most sub-groups had a majority of likely voters say they thought the U.S. was an exceptional country in comparison to other countries.
Every sub-group had at least a plurality of voters say the U.S. was an "exceptional country" in comparison to other countries. Sub-groups were for the most part split down partisan lines. For instance, women (52% exceptional) were less likely than men (68% exceptional) to say the U.S. was an exceptional country, while younger Millennials age 18-29 (17% below average) were three times more likely to say the U.S. is below average compared to voters age 65+ (5% below average). Democrats (47% exceptional) were much less likely to say the U.S. is exceptional than Republicans (79% exceptional), while a majority of Independents (51% exceptional) thought the U.S. was still exceptional.
Hispanics (52% exceptional) were much more likely to say the U.S. is an exceptional country compared to African American voters (39% exceptional). A majority of conservatives (76%) and moderates (56% exceptional) viewed America as an exceptional country compared to fewer liberals (47% exceptional). Nearly two thirds of voters in large cities (64% exceptional) viewed the U.S. as exceptional, which is a larger percentage compared to small city voters (59% exceptional), suburban voters (61% exceptional) and rural voters (56% exceptional).
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