Trump Job approval
The president's numbers remain solid: 50% at least somewhat approve of his job as president and 48% at least somewhat disapprove; 2% were not sure.
Trump is doing well and winning back support with important swing voters: Independents (42% at least somewhat approve/52% at least somewhat disapprove), Hispanics (45% at least somewhat approve/55% at least somewhat disapprove) and women (44% at least somewhat approve/53% at least somewhat disapprove).
The president's job approval numbers were strong in the Central/Great Lakes (50% at least somewhat approve/48% at least somewhat disapprove) and the south (56% at least somewhat approve/42% at least somewhat disapprove) compared with voters in the east (45% at least somewhat approve/53% at least somewhat disapprove) and the west (46% at least somewhat approve/53% at least somewhat disapprove). When it came to the household income of voters, Trump does best with high net worth voters earning > $100k (59% at least somewhat approve/40% at least somewhat disapprove).
Nearly half (49%) of voters in large and small cities at least somewhat approved of Trump. His numbers are steady in the suburbs as 46% at least somewhat approve and 52% at least somewhat disapprove.
The president's job approval numbers are very good with consumers: NASCAR fans (67% at least somewhat approve/32% at least somewhat disapprove), weekly Walmart shoppers (58% at least somewhat approve/41% at least somewhat disapprove), weekly Amazon shoppers (60% at least somewhat approve/40% at least somewhat disapprove).
As has been the case for the past few months in our polling, Trump performs well with the most vulnerable voters-lost a job (65% at least somewhat approve/33% at least somewhat disapprove); afraid of losing a job (52% at least somewhat approve/45% at least somewhat disapprove); at a job that pays less (52% at least somewhat approve/47% at least somewhat disapprove) and gone without food for 24 hours (57% at least somewhat approve/44% at least somewhat disapprove).
The president also scored well with Millennials (51% at least somewhat approve/47% at least somewhat disapprove) and Generation X (56% at least somewhat approve/42% at least somewhat disapprove), which represent sub-groups who have majorities who at least somewhat approve of president.
The president continues to perform well with religious voters; he has over 50% approval with Catholic men (57% at least somewhat approve/39% at least somewhat disapprove) and Catholic women (52% at least somewhat approve/45% at least somewhat disapprove). In another trend that has continued for months in Zogby polling, the president's numbers hover near 60% approval with urban men (58% at least somewhat approve/42% at least somewhat disapprove) and urban parents (60% at least somewhat approve/40% at least somewhat disapprove).
The president also does well with the 25-34 (53% at least somewhat approve/45% at least somewhat disapprove) age group. If his job approval ratings continue to do this well with this age cohort, he will be hard to beat in the 2020 general election.
The president did not get a good job approval rating with important sub-groups he needs to win re-election: suburban women (41% at least somewhat approve/56% at least somewhat disapprove). The president's numbers are also down with the youngest voters age 18-24 (25% at least somewhat approve/73% at least somewhat disapprove) and age 18-29 (36% at least somewhat approve/61% at least somewhat disapprove).
2020 Horse races
Trump vs. Biden
Trump continues to edge out Biden within the margin of error, 46% to 45%. When matched-up against the former vice president, Trump is doing well with voters age 25+ (Trump leads 49% to 42%) and age 30+ (Trump leads 50% to 42%).
Joe Biden received decent support from women voters (Biden leads 48% to 39%) and the youngest voters age 18-24 (Biden leads 65% to 18%) and age 18-29 (Biden leads 57% to 29%). Not surprisingly, Biden polls well with minority voters; he leads with Hispanics (53% to 34%) and African Americans (77% to 14%). At 14% among African American voters, Trump is doing better than the 8% he received from blacks in 2016 presidential election.
Overall, the race is very close between Biden and Trump among important demographics. They are tied within the margin of error among Millennials-born between 1980-1995-Trump leads 45% to 44%; suburban voters (Biden leads 46% to 44%), and small city voters (Trump leads 46% to 45%).
Among the important swing voters the race continues to be a see saw: Trump is winning with Independents (Trump leads 41% to 40%), consumer blocs-NASCAR fans (Trump leads 59% to 34%), weekly Walmart shoppers (Trump leads 52% to 37%), weekly Amazon shoppers (Trump leads 51% to 45%) and the most vulnerable voters-lost a job (Trump leads 52% to 38%), afraid of losing a job (both at 46%), at a job that pays less (Trump leads 48% to 42%), gone without food for 24 hours (Trump leads 47% to 43%). Biden is also beating Trump with suburban women (Biden 47% to 40%), who will factor in big in the 2020 presidential election.
Trump vs. Sanders
In a potential general election showdown, between populist heavy weights, President Trump narrowly beats Sanders 47% to 45%. To no one's surprise Senator Bernie Sanders (VT-I) beats Trump with the youngest voters- age 18-34 (Sanders leads 53% to 37%). Trump does better with voters age 35+ and age 30+ (Trump leads 51% to 43%). What could potentially hurt Trump is Sanders' well standing relationship with Independent voters (Sanders leads Trump 46% to 39%).
Sanders is also taking it to Trump with suburban voters (Sanders leads 47% to 45%), small city voters (Sanders leads 49% to 44%) and suburban women (Sanders leads 48% to 42%).
Trump is winning with union voters (Trump leads 48% to 42%) and consumers-NASCAR fans (Trump leads 63% to 32%), weekly Walmart shoppers (Trump leads 54% to 37%), and weekly Amazon shoppers (Trump leads 54% to 43%).
Bernie Sanders continues to perform well with minorities-Hispanics (Sanders leads 54% to 32%) and African Americans (Sanders leads 79% to 16%). Both are tied among voters with no college degrees (both 45%) and in an interesting twist of events, Trump leads with voters who have college degrees (Trump leads 50% to 45%).
Trump vs. Warren
Against the fiery Senator from Massachusetts, the president is leading by 4 percent, 47% to 43%. In a surprising twist, Warren appeals less than Biden and Sanders do to women voters (Warren only leads Trump 46% to 40%), while Trump receives better numbers with men (Trump leads 54% to 40%). Warren has the support of voters age 18-24 (Warren leads 71% to 20%) and age 18-29 (Warren leads 57% to 31%), while Trump leads with voters age 25+ (Trump leads 50% to 40%) and age 30+ (Trump leads 51% to 40%). Warren is doing well with minorities-Hispanics (Warren leads 54% to 33%) and African Americans (Warren leads 74% to 19%). They are virtually tied with voters with no college degrees (Warren leads 44% to 43%) and Trump leads with voters who have college degrees (Trump leads 51% to 42%).
Warren does cut into Trump's supporter base by slightly beating out the president with small city (Warren leads 48% to 45%) and union voters (Warren leads 45% to 44). She also leads Trump among large city voters (Warren leads 49% to 43%) and is statistically tied with the president among suburban voters (Trump leads 45% to 44%) while winning with suburban women (Warren leads 46% to 41%).
Trump does well with NASCAR fans (Trump leads 59% to 35%), weekly Walmart shoppers (Trump leads 53% to 36%), weekly Amazon shoppers (Trump leads 52% to 42%), and religious voters-Catholics (Trump leads 48% to 43%), Protestants (Trump leads 56% to 34%), and Born Again voters (Trump leads (60% to 33%).
Unlike her rivals, Warren scored well with all the most vulnerable voter groups- lost a job (Trump leads 50% to 44%), afraid of losing a job (Warren leads 46% to 43%), at a job that pays less (Warren leads 49% to 42%), and voters who have gone without food for 24 hours (Warren leads 48% to 46%).
Trump vs. Buttigieg
In a closer than expected race with the Mayor of South Bend, Indiana, Trump beats out Pete Buttigieg 45% to 41%. Buttigieg does not have the advantages of his rivals (Biden, Sanders, and Warren) with younger voters-age 18-24 (Buttigieg leads 51% to 27%), age 18-29 (Buttigieg leads 45% to 32%) and women (Buttigieg leads 42% to 39%). The end result is Trump is in closer races than in other match-ups with these key groups. Considering all the talk about Buttigieg not having support with minorities, his numbers are pretty good against Trump; Buttigieg is leading Trump among Hispanics (Buttigieg leads 51% to 33%) and African American voters (Buttigieg leads 73% to 15%).
Trump is doing well with his base: men (Trump leads 53% to 39%), non-college educated voters (Trump leads 43% to 41%), voters with college degrees (Trump leads 49% to 41%), Independents (Trump leads 39% to 33%), small city voters (Trump leads 45% to 38%) and voters aged 30+ (Trump leads 49% to 40%)
Buttigieg has carved out the centrist lane in the Democratic debates and is doing well with middle class voters whose household income is below $75k annually (Buttigieg leads 45% to 38%) and is just slightly receiving more support than Trump from suburban voters (Buttigieg leads 43% to 42%).
Trump does well with consumers- NASCAR fans (Trump leads 58% to 34%), weekly Walmart shoppers (Trump leads 52% to 32%), weekly Amazon shoppers (Trump leads 51% to 43%) and the most vulnerable voters- lost a job (Trump leads 52% to 36%), afraid of losing a job (Trump leads 45% to 38%), at a job that pays less (Trump leads 43% to 41%), and gone without food for 24 hours (Trump leads 47% to 37%). Despite" not doing all that great with women voters, "Mayor Pete" is beating Trump among suburban women (Buttigieg leads 45% to 36%) and urban women (Buttigieg leads 49% to 31%).
Trump vs. Bloomberg
Billionaire vs. Billionaire is what we are billing this. The former Mayor of New York City has bought his way into the Democratic primary. Overall, Trump and Bloomberg are in a razor thin race, with Trump leading 43% to 42%. Trump does best with voters age 25+ (Trump leads 47% to 41%) and age 30+ (Trump leads 47% to 41%). Bloomberg does well with younger voters-age 18-24 (Bloomberg leads 60% to 24%) and age 18-29 (Bloomberg leads 49% to 34%), Hispanics (Bloomberg leads 55% to 32%), African Americans (Bloomberg leads 73% to 17%) and voters without college degrees (Bloomberg leads 43% to 42%).
In a new trend that has emerged as of late, Trump does best with voters with college degrees (Trump leads 48% to 42%) and voters working fulltime (Trump leads 46% to 42%). He also receives good numbers with his base: men (Trump leads 51% to 40%), consumers-NASCAR fans (Trump leads 56% to 36%), weekly Walmart shoppers (Trump leads 51% to 32%), and among weekly Amazon shoppers, (Trump leads 50% to 44%). Trump loses some steam with union voters when matched against Bloomberg (Trump leads 46% to 39%).
Bloomberg is receiving decent support among swing voters: Independents (Bloomberg leads 39% to 35%), suburban voters (Bloomberg leads 46% to 40%) and suburban women (Bloomberg 48% to 35%). Bloomberg also does well with the most vulnerable voters-lost a job (Trump leads 48% to 45%), afraid of losing a job (Bloomberg leads 43% to 41%), at a job that pays less (Bloomberg leads 44% to 40%), gone without food for 24 hours (both 45%), and performs well with large (Bloomberg leads 52% to 41%) and small city voters (Trump leads 42% to 41%).
Impeachment
In light of the historic impeachment of President Donald Trump by House Democrats, it's interesting to think what this moment in history will mean and how does it rate with other important moments during the last seven presidencies, from Eisenhower to Trump. Will impeachment be the defining moment of Trump's presidency, will his impeachment be seen as a partisan act or a true abuse of power by the president? Although, most scholars argue events can't be defined or processed in historical terms for about forty to fifty years after, we thought it would be interesting to see what impeachment means now for Trump, so we asked survey respondents do you "Agree or disagree that each one of the following presidents committed an impeachable offense while in office." We went as far back as the end of WWII; to President Dwight Eisenhower.
Not surprisingly, surveyed voters agreed the most (71%) that President Richard Nixon, who resigned before he could be impeached and removed from office in 1974, committed an impeachable offense, while 16% at least somewhat disagreed and 13% were unsure.
The sentiment did not very much among sub-groups: strong majorities in each sub-group-age, gender, income, race, residence, region, consumer, and party at least somewhat agreed Nixon committed and impeachable offense as president.
Bill Clinton received the second largest percentage of surveyed voters who agreed he committed an impeachable act during his time in office. A majority (61% at least somewhat agree/26% at least somewhat disagree, 13% not sure) of surveyed voters agreed he committed an impeachable offense in office. It was pretty steady agreement across the board regarding sub-groups who felt he should have been impeached, including 54% of Democrats who agreed.
Donald Trump had the third highest level (behind Nixon and Clinton) of agreement among voters that he committed an impeachable offense. 53% at least somewhat agreed, 35% at least somewhat disagreed, and 11% were not sure.
The next highest percentage was Barak Obama, with 38% at least somewhat agreeing and 48% at least somewhat disagreeing, while 15% of surveyed voters were not being sure. Not surprisingly, a majority of Democrats at least somewhat disagreed, while a majority of Republicans agreed he committed an impeachable act while in office. Interestingly, slightly more Hispanics (43%) and African Americans agreed (41%) that Obama committed an impeachable offense compared to white voters (38% agreed).
Obama's predecessor, George W. Bush, followed close behind with a third (34% at least somewhat agreed/47% at least somewhat disagreed, and 19% not sure) agreeing he committed and impeachable offense. Men (39%) were more likely to at least somewhat agree compared to women (28%). The same patterns seen in other presidents also held regarding the age of surveyed voters.
A majority of voters neither agreed nor disagreed that older presidents committed an impeachable offense while in office. Thus, for Lyndon Johnson, 30% at least somewhat agreed and 42% at least somewhat disagreed, while 29% were not sure. In the case of Gerald Ford, 24% at least somewhat agreed, 47% at least somewhat disagreed, and 29% were not sure. In each case, the older the respondent the more likely the respondent was to disagree the president surveyed (i.e. Eisenhower, Johnson and Ford) committed an impeachable offense. Millennials, born 1980-1995, (37% at least somewhat agreed and 31% at least somewhat disagreed) were much more likely to at least somewhat agree Ford committed an impeachable offense while in office than Baby boomers (12% at least somewhat disagreed and 66% at least somewhat agreed). In the case of the oldest president Dwight D. Eisenhower, a plurality (33%) were not sure, while 42% at least somewhat disagreed "Ike" committed an impeachable offense and 25% at least somewhat agreed. Women were more unsure (44%) than men (20%). Older voters aged 65+ were more likely to disagree (71% at least somewhat disagreed and 8% at least somewhat agreed).
When it came to the very popular John Kennedy, nearly half of likely voters at least somewhat disagreed that he committed an impeachable offense as president; 30% at least somewhat agreed and 22% were not sure. Older voters were the most likely to disagree. There wasn't much variance as to the degree voters agreed and disagreed regarding party and gender. Hispanics were much more likely to at least somewhat agree (44%) than white (26%) or African American voters (37%).
Rounding out the list were all the modern day presidents of the fourth quarter of the twentieth century: Jimmy Carter, Ronald Reagan, and George H.W. Bush. Voters were kind to Jimmy Carter: a majority (52%) of voters disagreed he committed an impeachable offense, while a quarter at least somewhat agreed and a quarter of voters were unsure.
Again, to no one's surprise older voters aged 65+ disagreed the most (75% at least somewhat disagreed and 9% at least somewhat agreed) Jimmy Carter did not commit an impeachable offense, while men (56% at least somewhat disagreed and 28% at least somewhat agreed) were more likely than women (20% at least somewhat disagreed and 48% at least somewhat agreed) to disagree Carter committed an impeachable offense.
White (55% at least somewhat disagreed and 20% at least somewhat agreed) voters were more likely to disagree than Hispanic (44% at least somewhat disagreed and 39% at least somewhat agreed) and African American voters (47% at least somewhat disagreed and 31% at least somewhat agreed) that Carter committed an impeachable offense.
The immensely popular Ronald Reagan had decent numbers. Half of voters disagreed, compared to 29% who agreed and 22% who were not sure. Republicans (27%) and older voters age 65+ (18%) were the least likely to agree the "Gipper" committed an impeachable offense in office. Voters in the Central/Great Lakes (52%) were more likely to disagree than voters in the south (45%). Reagan's bitter rival in 1980 and future vice president, George H.W. Bush, scored similar numbers. Just fewer than 50% disagreed that H.W. committed an impeachable offense, while 30% agreed and 21% were not sure. The same patterns, as with other presidents, held regarding older voters age 65+ and minorities.
Conclusion and takeaways
The president's job approval numbers continue to be solid. His numbers are decent across the board, although he needs more support with women, suburban voters, suburban women and Independents. But with these groups, including Hispanics, Trump's numbers are climbing back-up.
Trump continues to win narrow races against the Democratic front runners. Trump wins by as little as a percentage point with Bloomberg, Biden and Sanders. Trump is winning by four percentage points against Buttigieg and Warren.
Riding high on his improved numbers with Independents, which could be the result from Independents negative reaction to the House impeachment, Trump is beating Biden and Buttigieg and is tied with Warren among Independent voters. But Trump is not entirely out of the woods: Sanders and Bloomberg are winning with Independents when matched-up against Trump.
Right now Bloomberg is running closest with the president by a point, but Biden and Sanders lurk in the background, ready to pounce and take over the mantel. Biden continues to hang around and Sanders is considered a viable option again.
Trump was the third highest rated president in terms of voters agreeing he committed an impeachable offense. Clinton ranked higher and to no one's consternation, Richard Nixon was first. No doubt, the partisan lines were drawn when it comes to the impeachment of Trump; more than three quarters of Democrats agreed he committed an impeachable offense, while 53% of Republicans disagreed. This is different than Nixon or Clinton in that all demographics, including political parties, thought they committed impeachable offenses. Although, impeachment is not what Trump envisioned at the beginning of his presidency, the hard truth is he's the third president to ever be impeached!