The Top Takeaways
Trump's job approval
Trump's job approval is still solid-- 50% at least somewhat approve/48% at least somewhat disapprove. The president continued to improve his support among younger voters-Millennials (48% at least somewhat approve/48% at least somewhat disapprove), voters aged 25-34 (48% at least somewhat approve/48% at least somewhat disapprove) and Generation Z (43% at least somewhat approve/51% at least somewhat disapprove). The president also performed well with college educated voters (51% at least somewhat approve/48% at least somewhat disapprove), large city voters (52% at least somewhat approve/48% at least somewhat disapprove) and union members (65% at least somewhat approve/33% at least somewhat disapprove).
The president did lose some ground with Independents (38% at least somewhat approve/56% at least somewhat disapprove), suburban voters (47% at least somewhat approve/52% at least somewhat disapprove) and suburban women (44% at least somewhat approve/54% at least somewhat disapprove).
But the president continues to perform well with consumers, such as, weekly Walmart shoppers (60% at least somewhat approve/37% at least somewhat disapprove), Amazon shoppers (61% at least somewhat approve/36% at least somewhat disapprove), and NASCAR fans (63% at least somewhat approve/34% at least somewhat disapprove), while maintaining gains he has made with Hispanics (47% at least somewhat approve/52% at least somewhat disapprove), African Americans (26% at least somewhat approve/70% at least somewhat disapprove) and women voters (45% at least somewhat approve/53% least somewhat disapprove).
Overall, thirty percent of likely voters were worried about contracting coronavirus, while a majority (55%) was not worried about contracting coronavirus, and 15% were not sure. Voters under the age of 50 (37% yes/50% no) were more likely to fear contracting the virus than older voters over the age of 50 (22% yes/62% no).
Democrats (33% yes/52% no) and Republicans (35% yes/54% no) were more worried about contracting coronavirus than Independents (19% yes/61% no). Voters living in large cities (47% yes/41% no) were also more worried compared to respondents living in small cities (26% yes/56% no), suburbs (27% yes/59% no) and rural areas (21% yes/60% no). Union members (54% yes/39% no) and consumers, such as, weekly Walmart shoppers (42% yes/44% no), weekly Amazon shoppers (44% yes/43% no) and NASCAR fans (47% yes/45% no) were also much more likely to be concerned about the outbreak of coronavirus compared to other sub-groups.
As follow-up question, we asked those who were worried (N=272) if they had taken any precautions, e.g. bought medical supplies, back-up food and/or water, etc. A majority (52%) said they had taken precautions, such as, buying back-up medical supplies, and extra food and water.
When we presented respondents with a list of "accomplishments" touted by the Trump administration, we asked respondents if each would make them "more or less likely" to vote for President Trump in 2020. Eight out of the 10 accomplishments the Trump administration has touted as a result of their doing, were cause for a plurality of respondents to say they were more likely to vote for Trump in 2020.
There wasn't a majority of respondents who were more or less likely to vote for Trump in 2020 due to any of the "accomplishments" listed, but in six instances there was at least a ten percentage point difference in the amount of voters who more likely to vote for Trump compared to less likely to vote for Trump in 2020.
The four most popular accomplishments were: African-American unemployment at the lowest rate in history (48% more likely, 27% less likely), the United States is a net natural gas exporter for the first time since 1957 (48% more likely, 30% less likely) U.S. oil production recently reached an all-time high (46% more likely, 34% less likely), and President Trump's Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (46% more likely, 35% less likely).
There were two instances where voters were less likely to vote for Trump in 2020 concerning actions taken by the Trump administration: Opened ANWR and approved Keystone XL and Dakota Access Pipelines (35% more likely, 40% less likely), and withdrew the United States from the Paris Climate Accord (34% more likely, 42% less likely).
In the case of the Trump administration's most popular "accomplishments" among respondents, numbers were pretty steady across the board, with the exception of consumers, such as, weekly Amazon shoppers and NASCAR fans (7%-14% more likely to vote for Trump in 2020). In the case of Trump's touted accomplishments that were not as popular, such as, opening ANWR and approved Keystone XL and Dakota Access Pipelines, and withdrawing the United States from the Paris Climate Accord, key groups such as Independents and suburban women said these issues would make them slightly less likely (6-7% lower among more likely) to vote for Trump in 2020.
South Carolina Democratic Primary
Former Vice President Joe Biden (28%) had a comfortable lead over his nearest competitor Senator Bernie Sanders (20%). In a big surprise, entrepreneur Tom Steyer finished in third place with 15% and Senator Elizabeth Warren (11%) was the only other candidate to get double digit support from Democrats in South Carolina. After the recent debacle in Iowa can Biden stage a comeback or will Bernie Sanders rise to the occasion in New Hampshire and continue to build momentum to South Carolina? Interestingly, mayors Michael Bloomberg and Pete Buttigieg were non-factors in South Carolina.
Zogby Analytics Poll Methodology
Zogby Analytics conducted an online survey of 908 likely voters in the U.S. from 1/31/20 - 2/2/20.
Zogby Analytics also conducted an online survey of 630 likely voters in South Carolina from 1/31/20 - 2/3/20. 277 likely voters were identified as likely Democratic primary voters.
Using internal and trusted interactive partner resources, thousands of adults were randomly invited to participate in this interactive survey. Each invitation is password coded and secure so that one respondent can only access the survey one time.
Using information based on census data, voter registration figures, CIA fact books and exit polls, we use complex weighting techniques to best represent the demographics of the population being surveyed. Weighted variables may include age, race, gender, region, party, education, and religion. The party breakdown for the national survey is as follows: 36% Democrat, 36% Republican and 28% Independent/unaffiliated
Based on a confidence interval of 95%, the margin of error for 908 is +/- 3.3 percentage points. This means that all other things being equal, the identical survey repeated will have results within the margin of error 95 times out of 100.
Based on a confidence interval of 95%, the margin of error for 277 is +/- 5.9 percentage points. This means that all other things being equal, the identical survey repeated will have results within the margin of error 95 times out of 100.
Subsets of the data have a larger margin of error than the whole data set. As a rule we do not rely on the validity of very small subsets of the data especially sets smaller than 50-75 respondents. At that subset we can make estimations based on the data, but in these cases the data is more qualitative than quantitative. Additional factors can create error, such as question wording and question order.
About Zogby Analytics:
Zogby Analytics is respected nationally and internationally for its opinion research capabilities. Since 1984, Zogby has empowered clients with powerful information and knowledge critical for making informed strategic decisions.
The firm conducts multi-phased opinion research engagements for banking and financial services institutions, insurance companies, hospitals and medical centers, retailers and developers, religious institutions, cultural organizations, colleges and universities, IT companies and Federal agencies. Zogby's dedication and commitment to excellence and accuracy are reflected in its state-of-the-art opinion research capabilities and objective analysis and consultation.