sanders warren trump pence021720

In a hypothetical 2020 presidential election match-up between Senators Bernie Sanders (I-VT) and running mate Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) versus incumbent President Donald Trump and Vice President Mike Pence, Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren win a close race within the margin of error, 48% to 45%, while 7% of likely voters are not sure.

Make no mistake, this is a close race but the senators from neighboring New England states are able to pull ahead of Trump and Pence by winning with their base and swing voters: younger voters aged 18-29 (Sanders/Warren 59% vs. Trump/Pence 32%), Millennials (Sanders/Warren 52% vs. Trump/Pence 37%), women (Sanders/Warren 51% vs. Trump/Pence 41%), Independents (Sanders/Warren 45% vs. Trump/Pence 36%), suburban voters (Sanders/Warren 48% vs. Trump/Pence 43%), suburban women (Sanders/Warren 55% vs. Trump/Pence 38%), union members (Sanders/Warren 53% vs. Trump/Pence 41%) and college educated voters (Sanders/Warren 49% vs. Trump/Pence 44%).

Trump and Pence perform well among men (Trump/Pence 49% vs. Sanders/Warren 44%), Generation X voters (Trump/Pence 50% vs. Sanders/Warren 46%), voters aged 30-49 (Trump/Pence 48% vs. Sanders/Warren 44%), Catholic voters (Trump/Pence 53% vs. Sanders/Warren 42%), small city voters (Trump/Pence 47% vs. Sanders/Warren 44%), and consumers, such as, weekly Walmart shoppers (Trump/Pence 49% vs. Sanders/Warren 44%) weekly Amazon shoppers (Trump/Pence 48% vs. Sanders/Warren 46%), and NASCAR fans (Trump/Pence 52% vs. Sanders/Warren 43%).

The Takeaway

Even with all the turmoil currently hampering the Democratic Party at the moment, Sanders and Warren still win among a nationwide sample of 900 likely voters, which would skew more in favor of them winning the popular vote. The point is Sanders and Warren could win the popular vote, but Trump and Pence still have the advantage of the coalition of working class and blue collar voters they made in-roads with in swing states: Ohio, Florida, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, which could produce a similar outcome as 2016, in which Trump/Pence just win the Electoral College and re-election in 2020.

biden buttigieg trump pence021720

Joe Biden and Mayor Pete Buttigieg (47%) are currently beating a Donald Trump and Mike Pence (44%) ticket head to head in a hypothetical 2020 presidential election, while 9% of likely voters were not sure. Even with Biden's current presidential campaign crumbling and Buttigieg finishing in second place to Sanders in Iowa and New Hampshire, both Democrats appeal to their base of younger voters aged 18-29 (Biden and Buttigieg 52% vs. Trump/Pence 34%), Millennials (Biden and Buttigieg 49% vs. Trump/Pence 39%), women (Biden and Buttigieg 50% vs. Trump/Pence 38%), and swing voters: Independents (Biden and Buttigieg 42% vs. Trump/Pence 34%) and suburban women (Biden and Buttigieg 52% vs. Trump/Pence 33%).

Biden and Buttigieg are also received well by moderates (Biden and Buttigieg 52% vs. Trump/Pence 35%), union members (Biden and Buttigieg 51% vs. Trump/Pence 44%), urban voters in large cities (Biden and Buttigieg 55% vs. Trump/Pence 41%), suburban voters (Biden and Buttigieg 46% vs. Trump/Pence 41%), suburban parents (Biden and Buttigieg 49% vs. Trump/Pence 41%) and voters with college degrees (Biden and Buttigieg 49% vs. Trump/Pence 45%).

Trump and Pence performed well with men (Trump/Pence 51% vs. Biden/Buttigieg 43%), consumers, such as, NACAR fans (Trump/Pence 53% vs. Biden/Buttigieg 41%), weekly Walmart shoppers (Trump/Pence 50% vs. Biden/Buttigieg 43%) and weekly Amazon shoppers (Trump/Pence 52% vs. Biden/Buttigieg 41%). The Trump/Pence ticket is also received well by small city voters (Trump/Pence 48% vs. Biden/Buttigieg 41%), voters aged 30-49 (Trump/Pence 48% vs. Biden/Buttigieg 44%) and Generation X voters (Trump/Pence 48% vs. Biden/Buttigieg 46%).

The Takeaway

Even with their current issues between the two candidates, Biden and Buttigieg still do as well as Sanders and Warren matched-up against Trump and Pence. Again, Biden and Buttigieg tap into the president's base by winning among union members, Independents, suburban parents, and suburban women. Where Biden and Buttigieg will need to really tap into the President's base will be in swing states, such as, Ohio, Florida, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Michigan. One thing is for sure "Scranton Joe" will need to make appearances in those states, if he has any chance of winning!


Zogby Analytics Poll Methodology

US Likely Voters
1/31/20 – 2/2/20

Zogby Analytics conducted an online survey of 908 likely voters in the US.

Using internal and trusted interactive partner resources, thousands of adults were randomly invited to participate in this interactive survey. Each invitation is password coded and secure so that one respondent can only access the survey one time.

Using information based on census data, voter registration figures, CIA fact books and exit polls, we use complex weighting techniques to best represent the demographics of the population being surveyed. Weighted variables may include age, race, gender, region, party, education, and religion. The party breakdown for this survey is as follows: 36% Democrat, 36% Republican and 28% Independent/unaffiliated.

Based on a confidence interval of 95%, the margin of error for 908 is +/- 3.3 percentage points. This means that all other things being equal, the identical survey repeated will have results within the margin of error 95 times out of 100.

Subsets of the data have a larger margin of error than the whole data set. As a rule we do not rely on the validity of very small subsets of the data especially sets smaller than 50-75 respondents. At that subset we can make estimations based on the data, but in these cases the data is more qualitative than quantitative.

Additional factors can create error, such as question wording and question order.


About Zogby Analytics:

Zogby Analytics is respected nationally and internationally for its opinion research capabilities. Since 1984, Zogby has empowered clients with powerful information and knowledge critical for making informed strategic decisions.

The firm conducts multi-phased opinion research engagements for banking and financial services institutions, insurance companies, hospitals and medical centers, retailers and developers, religious institutions, cultural organizations, colleges and universities, IT companies and Federal agencies. Zogby's dedication and commitment to excellence and accuracy are reflected in its state-of-the-art opinion research capabilities and objective analysis and consultation.