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The Zogby Poll®: Millennials back Biden over Trump; Trump making inroads with Millennial consumers

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Utica, New York, Oct. 19, 2020 -- Many pundits and academics are saying younger voters could wield considerable power in the November 3, 2020 presidential election. If these experts are right younger voters could sway this election in two ways: one scenario would be they turn out to vote in record numbers, and put Joe Biden and Democrats in control of the presidency and Congress, which would bring about sweeping changes to many institutions, social programs and corporations. The second scenario is Millennials do not come out in droves to vote, and have minimal impact on the 2020 presidential election. This scenario would make Trump's path to re-election easier, but Millennials would still face set-backs due to the lingering effects of the Covid-19 pandemic and recession.

A brand new nationwide Zogby Poll® of Millennial likely voters (born 1980-1995) shows a majority (55%) of Millennials back Joe Biden over President Trump (35%), while third party candidates, Libertarian Jo Jorgensen (3%) and the Green Party's Howie Hawkins (1%), failed to make much of an impression on Millennial voters. In addition to Biden's commanding lead with Millennials, he also performed better than the President among many important demographics. Below are some of the key findings from the poll:

  • The former vice president beat Trump among younger Millennials aged 24-32 (Biden led Trump 62% to 28%) and older Millennials aged 33-39 (Biden led Trump 48% to 42%).
  • Joe Biden performed well in the East (Biden led Trump 60% to 33%), West (Biden led Trump 57% to 30%) and Central/Great Lakes regions (Biden led Trump 59% to 31%).
  • When it came to the gender of surveyed Millennials, Biden beat Trump among women (Biden led Trump 59% to 27%) and men (Biden led Trump 51% to 43%).
  • The education of surveyed voters did not impact the race, as the former vice president bested Trump with college educated (Biden led Trump 56% to 38%) and non-college educated voters (Biden led Trump 54% to 32%).
  • Race was not a factor; Biden performed better than Trump among all categories: white (Biden led Trump 49% to 41%), Black (Biden led Trump 72% to 22%) and Hispanic voters (Biden led Trump 56% to 33%).

There were some demographics, among surveyed Millennials, where the president did make the race closer or led Joe Biden.

  • Trump did well with the top income bracket-Millennial households who earn $150K+ annually-Trump led Biden 58% to 37%; Millennial investors-more than $30K invested in the stock market-Trump led Biden 49% to 44%.
  • The president performed well with voters living in the South region (Biden led Trump 46% to 43%) and urban parents (Biden led Trump 47% to 46%).
  • Where Trump made the biggest splash is among retail consumers-weekly Walmart shoppers (Trump led Biden 48% to 47%) and weekly Amazon shoppers (Trump led Biden 52% to 43%) and sports consumers, such as, NASCAR (Trump led Biden 51% to 43%) MMA (both tied at 47%) and WWE fans (Trump led Biden 50% to 46%).
  • President Trump also made inroads with Millennial voters who were very vulnerable due to the pandemic, and those who have benefited from the last four years economically. Trump led Biden among Millennials who, had gone without food for the last twenty four hours (Trump led Biden 46% to 44%), and Millennials who consider their finances to be better off than they were four years ago (Trump led 47% to 46%).

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Zogby Analytics Poll Methodology
US Millennial Likely Voters
10/16/20 - 10/17/20

Zogby Analytics conducted an online survey of 612 Millennial likely voters in the US. Respondents born between Oct 25, 1980 through 1995 who are likely to vote in national elections were qualified to participate in this survey.

Using internal and trusted interactive partner resources, thousands of adults were randomly invited to participate in this interactive survey. Each invitation is password coded and secure so that one respondent can only access the survey one time.

Using information based on census data, voter registration figures, CIA fact books and exit polls, we use complex weighting techniques to best represent the demographics of the population being surveyed. Weighted variables may include age, race, gender, region, party, education, and religion.

Based on a confidence interval of 95%, the margin of error for 612 is +/- 4.0 percentage points. This means that all other things being equal, the identical survey repeated will have results within the margin of error 95 times out of 100.

Subsets of the data have a larger margin of error than the whole data set. As a rule we do not rely on the validity of very small subsets of the data especially sets smaller than 50-75 respondents. At that subset we can make estimations based on the data, but in these cases the data is more qualitative than quantitative.

Additional factors can create error, such as question wording and question order.

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About Zogby Analytics:
Zogby Analytics is respected nationally and internationally for its opinion research capabilities. Since 1984, Zogby has empowered clients with powerful information and knowledge critical for making informed strategic decisions.

The firm conducts multi-phased opinion research engagements for banking and financial services institutions, insurance companies, hospitals and medical centers, retailers and developers, religious institutions, cultural organizations, colleges and universities, IT companies and Federal agencies. Zogby's dedication and commitment to excellence and accuracy are reflected in its state-of-the-art opinion research capabilities and objective analysis and consultation.

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