Election Polling Article - 2020 Presidential Election
For all the controversy surrounding President Trump's claim the 2020 presidential election was ripe with fraud in certain states (Pennsylvania, Georgia, Nevada, Arizona, Michigan and Wisconsin), almost three quarters of surveyed voters in our post-election poll of over 5,100 U.S. election voters think that their votes were counted fairly and correctly, while more than a quarter said they weren't counted fairly (12%) or they weren't sure (15%).
Overall, most of the demographics we surveyed on the election polling controvery were consistent with the overall numbers-strong majorities of voters surveyed believed their votes were counted fairly and correctly in the 2020 presidential election.
There were instances where some groups deviated from the norm in comparison to other demographics or the overall numbers. Interestingly, women (68% yes/14% no) were less confident that their votes were counted fairly and correctly compared to men (78% yes/10% no). The issue of voting correctly and fairly was also split along partisan lines. Republicans (58% yes/21% no) and Independents (67% yes/13% no) were much more likely to think their votes weren't counted fairly and correctly compared to Democrats (91% yes/3% no).
The biggest differences, which weren't large by any stretch of the imagination, were seen among suburban and urban voters, and it was also evident when we drilled down further in the numbers and examined the gender of where voters lived. Rural women (60% yes/19% no) and suburban women (67% yes/13% no) were most skeptical when it came to whether they thought their votes were counted fairly and correctly, especially when compared with urban men (82% yes/8% no).
Regionally, voters in the Central/Great Lakes region (39% yes/28% no) were the least optimistic, while majorities of voters in the East (53% yes/21% no) and West (55% yes/20% no) thought the country could heal and unite after the election.
There were also differences of opinion among the age and gender of surveyed voters. Voters under 50 were much more likely to think the country could heal (59% yes/21% no), while voters over 50 (37% yes/26% no) were less likely to think so. Men (55% yes/25% no) were also much more likely to think the country could heal, while women (43% yes/23% no) did not think as much. The difference in optimism was most pronounced when we look at the youngest and oldest groups surveyed individually, for instance, a majority of the youngest voters aged 18-24 (54% yes/24% no) thought we could unite after the presidential election compared to only 28% of voters aged 70+ (28% yes/29% no/43% not sure).
There were also significant differences in how college educated (57% yes/19% no) and non-college educated voters felt (42% yes/27% no). College educated voters thought that the U.S. could heal and unite after the 2020 presidential election, while non-college educated voters did not feel as enthusiastic about the country healing and uniting.
When it came to race there were also major differences among white (44% yes/26% no), Black (62% yes/17% no), Hispanic (62% yes/18% no) and Asian voters (50% yes/20% no). The voters who most thought we could heal and unite as a nation were African Americans and Hispanics, while white and Asian voters were not as sanguine about Americans' ability to unite in the aftermath of the 2020 presidential election.
Where people lived also factored into how likely they thought the country could heal and unite after the 2020 presidential election. Only a plurality of suburban voters (41% yes/27% no) thought the country could heal and unite, while most large city voters (65% yes/16% no) thought the U.S. could heal and unite. Suburban women (41% yes/21% no) were also less likely to think we could heal and unite, while urban men (64% yes/20% no) were more optimistic the country could heal and unite after the Trump era.
After a whirlwind 2020 presidential election, we are still being treated to high-wire theatrics as the Trump team is grasping to last minute appeals to prevent states from certifying election results. Biden is moving full steam ahead with his transition team and cabinet selections. Even though there is still some drama over the 2020 presidential election results, most voters in our survey expressed faith in the voting system. Almost half were optimistic the country could heal and unite after the election. It's still easier said than done. Biden faces an uphill battle if the Senate remains Republican. Even if the Democrats do flip the Senate there is no guarantee all Senate Democrats will be on board to overhaul healthcare or "pack the Supreme Court."
President-elect Biden convinced voters he can do a better job than Trump managing the pandemic and the economy. Talk is cheap and it's one thing to say you are the president of everyone, but in reality, Biden represents a party, some of whom, are hell bent on settling the score with Republicans.
We have all heard this before-"hope and change and build back better." Now it's time to work with the other side and deliver results, not soundbites or empty promises. If Biden delivers, everyone wins. If he turns out to be another politician elected on empty promises, then hell hath no fury like a scorned ex-president!
Zogby Analytics Poll Methodology
US Nov 3rd Election Voters
11/4/20 - 11/12/20
Zogby Analytics conducted an online election polling survey of 5180 adults who voted in the November 3rd Presidential Election.
Using internal and trusted interactive partner resources, thousands of adults were randomly invited to participate in this interactive survey. Each invitation is password coded and secure so that one respondent can only access the survey one time.
Using information based on census data, voter registration figures, CIA fact books and exit polls, we use complex weighting techniques to best represent the demographics of the population being surveyed. Weighted variables may include age, race, gender, region, party, education, and religion. The party breakdown for this survey is as follows: 37% Democrat, 35% Republican and 28% Independent/unaffiliated.
Based on a confidence interval of 95%, the margin of error for 5180 is +/- 1.4 percentage points. This means that all other things being equal, the identical survey repeated will have results within the margin of error 95 times out of 100.
Subsets of the data have a larger margin of error than the whole data set. As a rule we do not rely on the validity of very small subsets of the data especially sets smaller than 50-75 respondents. At that subset we can make estimations based on the data, but in these cases the data is more qualitative than quantitative.
Additional factors can create error, such as question wording and question order.
About Zogby Analytics:
Zogby Analytics is respected nationally and internationally for its opinion research capabilities. Since 1984, Zogby has empowered clients with powerful information and knowledge critical for making informed strategic decisions.
The firm conducts multi-phased opinion research engagements for banking and financial services institutions, insurance companies, hospitals and medical centers, retailers and developers, religious institutions, cultural organizations, colleges and universities, IT companies and Federal agencies. Zogby's dedication and commitment to excellence and accuracy are reflected in its state-of-the-art opinion research capabilities and objective analysis and consultation.