Vice President JD Vance leads Democratic California Governor Gavin Newsom but trails former Vice President Kamala Harris in a potential 2028 presidential election matchup, according to a new poll from Zogby Analytics.
Why It Matters
As anticipation of the 2028 U.S. presidential election grows, early polls and betting odds signal a potentially fierce competition between Vance, Harris, Newsom and other top contenders.
These preliminary surveys offer insight into evolving voter sentiment, candidate recognition and potential outcomes, even as most major candidates have yet to formally launch their campaigns. The competitive landscape may reflect party dynamics following President Donald Trump’s 2024 victory and a national search for new leadership, with many Americans reportedly undecided on their 2028 preference.
What To Know
The poll shows Vance with 42.1 percent of the potential vote compared to Harris' 48.5 percent, with 9.4 percent not sure. The survey also shows in a potential head-to-head with Newsom, Vance has 44.6 percent of the vote compared to Newsom's 41 percent, and 14.3 percent are not sure.
The poll surveyed 891 likely voters in the U.S. from January 1 to January 7 and has a margin of error of 3.3 percent.
The poll also surveyed likely voters on a potential matchup between Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Newsom, Harris and Pennsylvania Democratic Governor Josh Shapiro.
Newsom leads Rubio in the hypothetical race, 41.7 percent to 39.9 percent, with 18.4 percent of voters not sure. Rubio holds a slight lead over Shapiro, with 35.9 percent versus 35.3 percent, and 28.9 percent not sure. Harris is narrowly ahead of Rubio, 43.4 percent to 43.1 percent, the poll shows, with 13.5 percent of likely voters not sure.
Another recent poll by CNN in December shows Newsom and Vance leading the top of the ticket for their respective parties as potential 2028 candidates.
What People Are Saying
Columbia University professor Robert Y. Shapiro, to Newsweek on Wednesday: "It is much too early to be comparing Democratic versus Republican candidates in the 2028 general election. What is interesting though too far from determinative is how Vance fares against Rubio for the Republican party nomination, since Trump has cited both of them as possible successors. Both surely want the nomination, as had Biden and Clinton as the possible successors to Obama. In that case Obama supported Clinton and not his Vice President. We see a comparable match-up now for the Republican nominations. Will Trump forsake his own Vice President as Obama did?"
Trump, in August when asked if Vance is the successor to MAGA: "Well, I think most likely in all fairness, he's the vice president. I think Marco [Rubio] is also somebody that maybe would get together with JD in some form. I also think we have incredible people, some of the people on the stage right here, so it's too early obviously to talk about it but certainly he's doing a great job, and he would be probably favored at this point."
What Happens Next
The 2028 presidential race remains fluid, with major contenders on both sides yet to declare their intentions officially. Historically, most candidates announce their bids after the midterms, when the political landscape becomes clearer.
https://www.newsweek.com/jd-vances-chances-of-beating-harris-newsom-in-2028-election-poll-11362016